The willingness of iron ore spot prices to rise

On the first working day after the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival, some iron ore traders slightly raised the spot price of imported iron ore and predicted that the iron ore will maintain its upward momentum in the near future.

Although a series of macro good news at home and abroad recently stimulated the enthusiasm of iron ore traders, the downstream demand for steel has not significantly improved. On the other hand, there is news that the future iron ore prices will continue to fall. Researchers in the steel industry believe that the enthusiasm of traders for the continued heavy import of iron ore remains to be seen.

Data show that on October 8th, the price of imported iron ore rose as a whole. The number of inquiries in the morning increased significantly. Individual merchants' prices increased by 20-30 yuan/ton, but large-scale traders intentionally raised 50 yuan. Some large traders have not issued the latest price yet, but their willingness to raise prices is strong. As for the steel mills, some billet enterprises in the north already have a profit of RMB 100-150/ton, and the procurement of raw materials is relatively positive. Therefore, it is expected that the price of imported iron ore will also rise as a whole for some time.

Steel industry analysts believe that the rebound in the steel market in September was mainly affected by the macro favorable news of centralized approval of domestic infrastructure projects and QE3 launch. Affected by the rebound in the steel market, iron ore prices rebounded rapidly. Among them, the rising trend of imported ore was relatively rapid. On September 11, the import mineral index rose from 93.6 points to 103.2 points, and the single-day increase was as high as 10.26%. It was also this year. The biggest increase in one day.

The most direct effect of large-scale infrastructure construction projects is to stimulate the massive consumption of steel and building materials. The improvement in the downstream demand situation will certainly boost the demand for iron ore. However, judging from the current industry situation, although the steel industry's export index and order index improved in September compared with July and August, the overall situation remains relatively low. With the rebound of steel prices, part of the early phase-out of iron and steel enterprises will gradually recover, and the supply contradictions will once again be highlighted. The BOCI Ferrous Metals Industry Report pointed out that the macroeconomic recovery needs a process, and the steel industry itself has not improved its overcapacity issue, and the steel market is still recovering.

In addition to the lack of support for downstream demand, the overall iron ore inventory is also at a high level. According to statistics, as of September 29, 2012, the total inventory of iron ore in 30 major ports across the country was 94.68 million tons.

In addition, the Ministry of Commerce recently quoted the Australian Daily News that due to the sharp decrease in demand for imported iron ore in China, iron ore will enter a 20-year bear market, the price will stumble, and may even drop to 50 in the middle of next year. USD/ton.

This means that once the iron ore gains are blocked, huge inventory and financial pressure will inevitably affect the enthusiasm of traders to continue importing.

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