I. Import and export situation and characteristics in 2017
According to customs statistics, the import and export of machine tool industry in 2017 was 25.791 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.32% over 2016 (hereinafter referred to as the same period). Of which, imports were US$ 14.633 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year; exports were US$ 11.158 billion, up 13.94% year-on-year. The import and export deficit was 3.475 billion US dollars.
1. Imports of metal processing machine tools have rebounded remarkably, and imports of vertical machining centers have grown rapidly.
Metal processing machine tools imported 86,200 units, 8.679 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.75% year-on-year, from a decline last year to a substantial increase. Among them, the vertical machining center, the gantry machining center, the CNC gantry milling machine, the CNC sharpening machine tool, the CNC electric machining machine tool, and the gold cutting machine tool accessories have increased their imports, see Appendix 1.
Schedule 1 Statistics of some machine tool imports in 2017: USD 10,000
2. Exports have changed from last year's decline to faster growth, and CNC horizontal lathe exports have grown rapidly.
The export of metal processing machine tools was 3.174 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.65% year-on-year, which changed from a decline last year to a rapid growth. Among them, CNC horizontal lathes, CNC bending and leveling machines, vertical machining centers, and export of gold cutting machine parts and components have grown rapidly. See attached table 2.
Schedule 2 Statistics of some machine tool exports in 2017: USD 10,000
Overall, the import and export of the whole industry has improved rapidly from last year, from last year's double decline to double growth. There are 2 significant features:
First, the import of the whole industry has changed from last year's decline to growth, and the growth rate is large, especially the high-speed growth of gantry-type machining centers, vertical machining centers, CNC sharpening machine tools, CNC electric machining machines and CNC gantry milling machines. Market demand has increased significantly;
Second, exports have turned from a continuous decline last year to a large increase, and the situation has turned better. The export of CNC horizontal lathes, CNC bending and leveling machines, and vertical machining centers has grown rapidly, but the export of horizontal machining centers has dropped significantly, which should be highly concerned. It should be noted that there are still many difficulties in maintaining the momentum of export growth, and the situation is not optimistic.
Second, the import and export outlook for 2018
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report on January 22, raising the global economic growth forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%, reflecting the strengthening of global growth and the recent approval of US taxation. The expected impact of policy changes. The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast this year by 0.1 percentage points to 6.6%. The economic growth of developed economies is 2.3% this year. It is expected that changes in US tax policy will stimulate economic activity. The short-term impact is mainly due to the investment growth brought by the reduction of corporate income tax. It is expected that the impact of tax policy changes on US economic growth will be positive before 2020. The IMF's forecast for US economic growth in 2018 has increased from 2.3% to 2.7%. The developing countries in Asia will grow by about 6.5%, the Indian economy will pick up, and the economy of the ASEAN region will remain basically stable.
From the analysis of international market demand, the comparative advantages of many mechanical products in China still exist, especially through innovation-driven, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and some new competitive advantages are gradually formed. Enterprises' ability to resist risks, expand markets and innovate and develop significantly. The construction of “One Belt, One Road†has promoted cooperation between machinery enterprises and countries along the route. From January 1, 2018, the China-Georgia FTA came into effect. The Georgian government immediately implemented zero tariffs on 96.5% of China's goods, covering 99.6% of the total imports from China, and 93.9% of China's products. The implementation of zero tariffs covers 93.8% of China's total imported goods. In 2018, China's Ministry of Commerce will conduct negotiations or escalation negotiations with Israel, Sri Lanka, the confederation, Pakistan, Singapore and other free trade agreements. At the same time, we will do a good job in negotiating or escalating negotiations on free trade agreements with countries such as Panama, Palestine, Mongolia, Switzerland, and Peru. These are all conducive to expanding the export of China's machinery products. However, a serious overcapacity of some products still exists, and enterprises still face more difficulties in production and operation. At the same time, due to the sharp rise in international raw material prices over a period of time, China’s labor costs have risen, the disorderly competition in the middle and low-end products has been intensified, and the rising prices of investment factors such as capital and environmental protection and exchange rate fluctuations have caused export costs to increase. There are many difficulties in further expanding exports. In particular, the United States, the largest exporter of machinery industry, engages in trade protectionism and threatens to initiate trade friction with China, which deserves serious attention.
Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the import and export of machine tool industry will continue to grow in 2018. As the Chinese government encourages the expansion of imports and holds the China International Import Expo in Shanghai in November this year, the import of machine tool products will grow rapidly. Exports will continue to play a competitive advantage in some products, but it will take hard work.
Third, the current issues of concern
1. Adjust structure, transformation and upgrading, and innovation and development. It should be seen that the industry-wide export products are basically low value-added and low-end products. According to the export value, the export of metal processing machine tools (including machine tool accessories) only accounts for about 30% of the total industry exports, and the proportion is too low, and mainly relies on the export of non-metal processing machine tools, tools, abrasive tools and abrasives. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the development and innovation of metal processing machine tools, especially the development of products with large import volume in recent years, such as vertical machining center, gantry machining center, CNC gantry milling machine, CNC sharpening machine, CNC Machining machine tools, gold cutting machine parts and so on. At present, some domestic enterprises have developed some high-end machine tools with the support of relevant government departments, and have achieved many results, meeting some user needs. However, efforts still need to be continued, and new products developed should be closer to market demand.
2. Pay attention to changes in international market demand, adjust production and supply structure in a timely manner, and promote products with advantages in China. In 2018, the overall demand of the international market will increase slightly. China's machine tool enterprises should pay attention to the research and development of the demand of developed economies, especially the US and Europe, while attaching importance to emerging economies, BRICS countries, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and ASEAN. , understanding and analysis of market demand in India and some developing countries, through the organization of visits and exchanges, business forums, various trade fairs, associations and other channels to obtain information, adjust the structure of export products, expand sales network, consolidate old customers, and develop new user. Efforts to promote China's advantageous products, such as low-end CNC machine tools, economical and ordinary machine tools, tools, abrasives, abrasives, and some small and medium-sized machine tools and accessories that are not produced in the United States and Europe.
3. Actively participate in the construction of the “Belt and Roadâ€. At present, China and the 10 countries of ASEAN, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have developed very well. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the trade volume between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road†in 2017 was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. The growth rate was 3.6 percentage points higher than the national foreign trade growth rate. Chinese enterprises directly invested 14.4 billion yuan in the countries along the route. In the US dollar, the contract value of new contracted projects with countries along the route was US$144.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. China's "One Belt, One Road" construction has entered a new stage of comprehensive and pragmatic cooperation. According to the report of the Electromechanical Museum of the 122nd Canton Fair in November 2017, the turnover of mechanical and electrical products along the “Belt and Road†increased by 17.1% year-on-year. The construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is co-operating between China and Pakistan (from Kashgar, Xinjiang, China to Gwadar Port in western Pakistan), has developed rapidly. A number of infrastructure projects have been started or started, and some have been completed. The completion of the third unit of the Chashma nuclear power plant in Pakistan and the completion of several photovoltaic and wind power projects have significantly improved the electricity supply in Pakistan. A number of mechanical enterprises in China have participated in the construction of this project, and the results have been remarkable. For a long time in the future, it will usher in an important period of opportunity for China to promote the construction of the “Belt and Roadâ€. Relevant enterprises should actively participate in it, strive to collect relevant information, actively participate in investment, cooperation and expand exports.
4. Use cross-border e-commerce platform to promote foreign trade development. In order to implement the spirit of the State Council's approval and better play the role of “first-in-first-trialâ€, cross-border e-commerce as a new business is booming in China. In 2017, the total volume of retail imports and exports through the China Customs cross-border e-commerce management platform reached US$90.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 80.6%. Since January 1, 2018, the transitional policy for cross-border e-commerce retail supervision has been applied to 10 pilot cities and regions in Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Fuzhou and Pingtan. On the basis of this, five new cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test area cities in Hefei, Chengdu, Dalian, Qingdao and Suzhou were added. The machine tool enterprises in the above cities and regions should contact the relevant comprehensive test areas, actively use the cross-border e-commerce platform to carry out import and export trade, connect enterprises and customers, speed up the customs clearance and logistics speed of products, and expand product exports.
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