Abstract The current downward pressure on the economy is increasing. The official manufacturing PMI, which was just released in December 2014, fell to an 18-month low, and the value of 50.1% is approaching the line of glory. At the same time, the final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6%, the first drop in 7 months. ...
The current downward pressure on the economy is increasing. The official manufacturing PMI, which was just released in December 2014, fell to an 18-month low, and the value of 50.1% is approaching the line of glory. At the same time, the final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6%, the first drop in 7 months. Broken line of glory.
The downturn in manufacturing activity reflects the downward pressure on the real economy. In this context, the market's expectations for policy easing are heating up. Many economists expect that the central bank is expected to cut interest rates again in the first quarter of this year.
Downward pressure is difficult to ease in the short term
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on January 1, the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1% in December 2014, the lowest since June 2013.
According to the analysis of China Logistics Information Center, the manufacturing PMI in December is close to the edge of the boundary between the edge and the bottom of the year, and it has fallen back to the lowest point in the year, which means that the downward pressure on the overall economy has not eased in the short term.
Consistent with the trend of the official PMI decline, the final value of the HSBC manufacturing PMI released in December has also dropped from 50% in the previous month to 49.6%, which is the first time in seven months that it has fallen below the line of glory, which confirms the weakness of the economy. Weak.
In addition, from the PMI sub-indicators, the price index of purchases and outputs has fallen sharply, and the deflation in the industrial production sector has intensified. The market generally expects that the December PPI year-on-year decline announced on the 9th will show an expansion trend, and corporate profits may fall further. Internationally, crude oil (52.23, -0.46, -0.87%), iron ore and other commodity prices fell in a "cliff style", which increased the pressure of imported deflation.
From the current institutional forecast, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may be slightly lower than the 7.3% in the third quarter. The annual economic growth rate in 2014 may be around 7.4%, slightly lower than the annual target of 7.5%.
The new normal economic platform is forming
The Chinese economy has entered a new normal. Although the economy has slowed down, it is worth noting that in this process, the pace of structural adjustment is accelerating and a new normal economic platform is taking shape.
According to Chen Zhongtao, deputy chief economist of China Logistics Information Center, from the perspective of the whole year, the average PMI of manufacturing industry is 50.7%, which is basically the same as the average of the previous two years. It has not seen a significant decline, indicating that the economic operation stability is enhanced and the growth rate is increased. In a moderately reasonable interval.
"At the same time, the employment situation is good, the effectiveness of energy conservation and emission reduction has appeared, the economic operation has been more coordinated; the structural adjustment has accelerated, and the service industry and emerging industries have flourished, indicating that the balance of economic operations has been significantly enhanced." He added that, on the whole, The new normal economic platform is taking shape, and the economic operation is expected to stabilize in 2015.
From the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data released for the first time this year, it can be found that the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI have fallen by one liter, indicating that although the manufacturing industry still faces great difficulties, the service industry is driving economic growth. The effect continues to increase.
Data show that in December 2014, non-manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 54.1%, rising for two consecutive months.
From the overall trend of non-manufacturing PMI in 2014, the annual average running at a higher level of 54% or above has played a better stabilizing role for the development of China's economy under the new normal.
Interest rate cuts are expected to heat up
From the current data, the actual number of the three key policy variables of GDP, M2 and CPI in 2014 is likely to be lower than the government's target in history, and this will trigger a more powerful policy relaxation.
Previously, on November 21, the central bank suddenly cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth and curb deflation risks. When the time is in 2015, economists generally believe that the central bank will not stop the pace of interest rate cuts, and will be repeatedly lowered, the earliest possible time in the first quarter of this year.
Liang Hong, chief economist of CICC, said that the central bank is expected to cut its quota by 4 times and cut interest rates twice this year. The monetary policy is faster than last year.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JPMorgan China, also pointed out that there will be at least one interest rate cut this year, most likely in the first quarter, and two RRR cuts, each with 50 basis points, most likely in the first quarter and second. Quarter.
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