In the first half of 2009, China's machinery industry production gradually came out of the bottom. For the development trend of the machinery industry in the second half of the year, Cai Weici, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation, believes that the economic operation of the machinery industry will still face various difficulties, but the overall operating environment will be better than the first half, and there are four favorable factors. .
First, the state has clearly stated that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the macroeconomic situation is expected to pick up further. In this context, the demand for mechanical products in various industries is expected to continue to grow.
From the data of the first half of the year, the production of machinery industry has steadily rebounded. In June, the total output value of the machinery industry exceeded 1 trillion yuan, a record high, indicating that the production situation is accelerating. Driven by infrastructure investment, construction machinery and other ushered in better market opportunities.
Second, the supply of energy and raw materials such as petroleum and steel is relatively loose, which is conducive to cost control and efficiency improvement of the machinery industry. Taking steel as an example, at the end of June, the China Steel Industry Association compiled a comprehensive domestic steel price index of 101.98 points, a year-on-year decrease of 59.49 points, a drop of 36.84%.
Third, the state's policies on adjusting and revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry (such as encouraging independent innovation, encouraging the acceleration of automobile renewal, increasing the export tax rebate rate for some machinery products, and the value-added tax transformation) are continuing to be implemented, and will certainly accelerate the machinery industry. The pace of development.
Among the countries' policies of expanding domestic demand, the most beneficial and most effective are the agricultural machinery and automobile industries. The output of large, medium-sized tractors and combine harvesters urgently needed for agricultural production in the first half of the year increased by 32.02%, 27.82% and 43.14% respectively. The production and sales of automobiles in the first half of the year were 5.99 million and 6.1 million, respectively, up 15.22% and 17.69%. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that in 2009, car sales will reach 11 million units, driven by favorable policies.
Fourth, due to the steep decline in the development of the machinery industry in the second half of 2008, especially in the fourth quarter, the comparison base in the second half of 2009 was reduced, which is more conducive to the growth of the second half of 2009.
Cai Weici predicted that the machinery industry is expected to continue the recovery trend in the second quarter and gradually accelerate the recovery rate in the second half of the year. It is expected to regain double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. In 2009, the total output value of the machinery industry will increase by about 12% over the previous year. Realized profits will increase by about 8% over the previous year, and foreign exchange earning is expected to fall by about 10% from the previous year.
However, while maintaining proper confidence, you must not take care of your difficulties. As far as the machinery industry is concerned, the main problem at present is the lack of external demand. Statistics show that the export volume of machinery industry in the first half of the year was 89.146 billion US dollars, down 24.11% year-on-year; before January-March, January-April, January-May, the decline was 21.04%, 22.22% and 23.9%, respectively. expand. The proportion of export delivery value in the sales value of the machinery industry was about 16% under normal circumstances in previous years, and it has dropped to 10.58% from January to June 2009.
The current external demand has not seen a clear prospect of improvement. According to analysis by research institutions such as the World Bank, the prospects for global economic recovery are still difficult to predict, and the machinery industry's foreign trade export market is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term.
In the case of shrinking international markets, to increase the share of exports, enterprises need to improve their own technology. It is gratifying to note that in the field of machinery industry, some industries in China have entered the international advanced ranks, and the exports of these industries are also less affected. For example, power equipment manufacturing is the strength of China's machinery industry. In the first half of 2009, power generation equipment exports reached 9 million kilowatts, still achieving positive growth year-on-year.
First, the state has clearly stated that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the macroeconomic situation is expected to pick up further. In this context, the demand for mechanical products in various industries is expected to continue to grow.
From the data of the first half of the year, the production of machinery industry has steadily rebounded. In June, the total output value of the machinery industry exceeded 1 trillion yuan, a record high, indicating that the production situation is accelerating. Driven by infrastructure investment, construction machinery and other ushered in better market opportunities.
Second, the supply of energy and raw materials such as petroleum and steel is relatively loose, which is conducive to cost control and efficiency improvement of the machinery industry. Taking steel as an example, at the end of June, the China Steel Industry Association compiled a comprehensive domestic steel price index of 101.98 points, a year-on-year decrease of 59.49 points, a drop of 36.84%.
Third, the state's policies on adjusting and revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry (such as encouraging independent innovation, encouraging the acceleration of automobile renewal, increasing the export tax rebate rate for some machinery products, and the value-added tax transformation) are continuing to be implemented, and will certainly accelerate the machinery industry. The pace of development.
Among the countries' policies of expanding domestic demand, the most beneficial and most effective are the agricultural machinery and automobile industries. The output of large, medium-sized tractors and combine harvesters urgently needed for agricultural production in the first half of the year increased by 32.02%, 27.82% and 43.14% respectively. The production and sales of automobiles in the first half of the year were 5.99 million and 6.1 million, respectively, up 15.22% and 17.69%. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects that in 2009, car sales will reach 11 million units, driven by favorable policies.
Fourth, due to the steep decline in the development of the machinery industry in the second half of 2008, especially in the fourth quarter, the comparison base in the second half of 2009 was reduced, which is more conducive to the growth of the second half of 2009.
Cai Weici predicted that the machinery industry is expected to continue the recovery trend in the second quarter and gradually accelerate the recovery rate in the second half of the year. It is expected to regain double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. In 2009, the total output value of the machinery industry will increase by about 12% over the previous year. Realized profits will increase by about 8% over the previous year, and foreign exchange earning is expected to fall by about 10% from the previous year.
However, while maintaining proper confidence, you must not take care of your difficulties. As far as the machinery industry is concerned, the main problem at present is the lack of external demand. Statistics show that the export volume of machinery industry in the first half of the year was 89.146 billion US dollars, down 24.11% year-on-year; before January-March, January-April, January-May, the decline was 21.04%, 22.22% and 23.9%, respectively. expand. The proportion of export delivery value in the sales value of the machinery industry was about 16% under normal circumstances in previous years, and it has dropped to 10.58% from January to June 2009.
The current external demand has not seen a clear prospect of improvement. According to analysis by research institutions such as the World Bank, the prospects for global economic recovery are still difficult to predict, and the machinery industry's foreign trade export market is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term.
In the case of shrinking international markets, to increase the share of exports, enterprises need to improve their own technology. It is gratifying to note that in the field of machinery industry, some industries in China have entered the international advanced ranks, and the exports of these industries are also less affected. For example, power equipment manufacturing is the strength of China's machinery industry. In the first half of 2009, power generation equipment exports reached 9 million kilowatts, still achieving positive growth year-on-year.
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