December steel prices are expected to rise

After construction steel fell in November, it showed signs of stabilization after falling in early December.

As of December 5th, the business index of the rebar (distribution) of the business club was 94.41, which was an increase of 0.07 points compared to December 4 and a decrease of 5.87% from the highest point of the cycle of 100.30 points (2012-11-06), compared with 2012.11 On the 30th of the month, the lowest point of 93.67 points rose by 0.79%. The price index of wire rods for business clubs was 68.80, up by 0.09 points from December 4th, a decrease of 31.30% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.14 points (2011-09-05) and up from 66.55 points of the lowest point on September 09, 2012. 3.38%.

According to the business community monitoring, China's port iron ore inventory (2012-11-26~2012-11-30) fell only 3.7% to only 92 million tons, while the number of imported iron ore inventory in the main port 8066 also decreased by 197 compared to the previous week. Ten thousand tons. Therefore, He Hangsheng believes that the decline in iron ore port inventory and the stabilization of its prices in early December have provided favorable cost support for the current steel market.

On the 3rd, 14 major steel mills in the country issued price adjustment information and prices continued to decrease. The price adjustments for steel mills were mainly concentrated in East China, Southwest China, South China, North China, and Northeast China. The ex-factory price of construction steel was lowered by RMB 20-250/t. Among them, Shagang lowered its rebar and high-line price in early December at RMB 200/tonne, and the coiled reeled-down at RMB 250/tonne. Xicheng lowered the price of rebar (alloy) by RMB 110/ton, Handan Steel lowered the price of rebar by RMB 120/ton, Guangzhou Steel lowered the price of high-end line by RMB 150/ton, rebar and coil by factory price by RMB 230/ton, Jiangsu Shente Reducing rebar 20 yuan/ton, wire down 20 yuan/ton. It can be seen that while steel mills lowered the price of construction steel in a large area, the steel prices in the market have stabilized, and there has been a trend of a converse trend. He Hangsheng believes that the emergence of this phenomenon in the construction steel market is precisely because the market has “contradiction” between North and South. Steel traders used the “price adjustment game to seize the market” opportunities of the North and South steel mills to carry out small upswings or promotions and shipments to ease the cost pressure brought about by the sharp fall in the previous market price, thus earning small profits.

As of November 30th, the five major steel products (rebar, wire, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and plate) of the 26 major markets across the country had a social inventory of 11.195 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week. Compared with the same period last year (December 2, 2011), total inventory decreased by 995,000 tons. He Hangsheng believes that in the context of rising steel stocks and unsatisfied end-market demand, the price of the construction steel market stabilized, or is a superficial phenomenon, and its inventory pressure is even more of a bad for the steel market. factor.