Abstract As the Trump administration is about to withdraw its position on the Paris climate agreement, China’s clear signal has made the international community feel more comfortable: whether the United States participates or not, China will continue to implement or even exceed the emission reduction targets and continue. Take the leading role of global climate governance...
At a time when the Trump administration is about to withdraw its position on the Paris climate agreement, China’s clear signal has made the international community feel more comfortable: whether the United States participates or not, China will continue to implement or even exceed the emission reduction targets and continue to act. The leading role of global climate governance. China’s Special Representative for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua said in Berlin this week that China will continue to pursue the Paris Agreement and is developing a “China Program†to translate this agreement into implementation rules and to find the “comfort†of all parties.
"Green low-carbon development has become the global trend, and it is unstoppable by anyone and any country," Xie Zhenhua said at the 8th Petersburg Climate Dialogue hosted by the German government.
The international community generally expects that US President Donald Trump will highlight his final position on climate change at the summit of the G7 leaders in Italy this weekend. Before and after being elected president of the United States, he threatened to let the United States withdraw from the Paris climate agreement reached by the 195 countries through hard negotiations in 2015, and will stop the United States from allocating funds for all UN global warming projects. This position has been criticized by many countries, and after the signing of the Paris Agreement, the international community once again optimistic about global climate governance is once again uneasy.
China “occupies the center of the climate stageâ€
The hesitation of the United States has made the Chinese position much more concerned. China and the United States are the world's two largest economies and the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. The two countries have vowed to cooperate and lead the world in climate governance during the Obama administration, becoming the most important prerequisite for the signing of the Paris Agreement.
At this week's Petersburg Climate Dialogue Forum in Berlin, China did not unexpectedly become the focus of the field. Xie Zhenhua reiterated the Chinese government's self-developed emission reduction targets within the framework of the Paris Agreement, including peaking carbon emissions by 2030. He said that with the decline in China's carbon intensity in 2016, China will have a high probability of exceeding the emission reduction targets.
"What I want to tell you is that according to the current strength, China will have no problem in achieving emission reduction targets by 2020, and it will be overfulfilled. Last year, China's carbon emission intensity dropped by 6.6% from the previous year, far exceeding the original plan. 3.9% of the goal," Xie Zhenhua said at a press conference on the opening day of the forum.
This remark made a lot of praise on the scene. Several negotiators mentioned that the firm stance of China and other countries in maintaining the Paris Agreement shows that even if the United States withdraws, there will be no “Domino-style domino†style of retrogression. Several international media commented on Xie Zhenhua’s speech that “the United States is absent and China is occupying the center of the stageâ€.
United States: Elephant in the room
The Paris Climate Agreement is a milestone in the international climate governance process. It not only wipes out the low sentiment caused by the failure of the Copenhagen climate negotiations, but also creates a new climate negotiation framework: signatories do not have to undertake mandatory emission reduction tasks. It is possible to set and implement emission reduction targets on its own, and there are no punitive measures even if it does not meet the standards. It is reviewed every five years and the target is continuously improved. This more inclusive and negotiating framework that makes signatories more “comfortable†is why the Paris Agreement has been recognized by almost all countries in the world within a year.
However, precisely because of its non-mandatory nature, how to refine this program document into a “rules manual†makes the national emission reduction measures operational, regulated and evaluable, and it is the most difficult for the international community. task. Negotiators are using a variety of official and non-official occasions to discuss, hoping to clear the legal, technical and political barriers to the “rules manual†accepted by the end of 2018. However, the United States is uncertain, leaving the process in a state of vacancy.
"The United States is clearly the elephant in the room now. 'They will leave 'this question hangs on all discussions," said Ralph Bodle, senior researcher at the Ecologic Institute, a German think tank. Say. As a legal advisor, Bodel has been closely involved in intra- and inter-regional climate negotiations for the past eight years.
The United States is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and is currently the second largest emitter in China. Studies have shown that if the United States withdraws from the Paris Agreement, it may turn back on greenhouse gas emissions. By 2025, it may only reduce emissions by about 17% compared with 2005, and 26% to 28% of the national independent contribution made by the Obama administration. Going to the goal is a far cry.
However, some studies have pointed out that if the two large emerging industrial countries, China and India, over-fulfill their emission reduction tasks, they are likely to fill the US emission reduction vacancies.
"If China and India are less, even if the United States is less, we can still stay on the current 3 degrees Celsius temperature rise curve," said Lut Weischer, a German environmental governance NGO Germanwatch researcher. "My assumption here is that Trump has only served for four years. If he is re-elected, the losses caused by the non-cooperation in the United States will be difficult to estimate."
But the biggest concern raised by the US threat of withdrawal is that it is no longer willing to pay for climate governance. If it withdraws, the commitment of the developed countries to provide developing countries with $100 billion in support each year will be difficult to achieve. If the US government significantly reduces its capital injection into the UN Green Climate Fund, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change may be financially unsustainable and will also plung the confidence of global low-carbon investment. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the total investment in the global clean energy sector in 2016 has fallen by 18% from 2015.
At the Petersburg climate dialogue in Berlin, countries tried to put more pressure on the United States at the last moment before Trump's participation in the G7 summit. The host of the German Environment Minister, Barbara Hendrick, said: "We are trying to influence the Americans through various channels, including the US Department of Foreign Affairs and the Environmental Protection Agency. Prime Minister Merkel has repeatedly appealed to Trump himself to let the United States Stay in this historic climate agreement."
The Chinese government has also hinted that the United States wants to stay in the Paris Agreement. In Berlin, although Xie Zhenhua did not directly mention the United States, he stressed that countries need to maintain "political mutual trust" in climate negotiations. In the forum, although the "question of the United States" continues to appear in various speeches, one of the views held by representatives of various countries is that the United States is the best, but if it is necessary to leave, other countries will continue to firmly adhere to the Paris Agreement. Even its departure may make other countries more united.
There is also a speculation that the United States may stay, but will bargain on the emission reduction targets and inputs. At this point, the views of countries are more consistent: they will defend the Paris Agreement and will not agree to the United States to reduce its commitments.
"If the Americans want to undermine this agreement, I think many countries will say that instead of this, you might as well leave," said Heishe.
Emission reduction and growth can be achieved simultaneously
The climate negotiations around the Paris Agreement are currently focused on the development of rules. Compared with the "spotlight moment" when the agreement is signed, the negotiations in the next one or two years will be relatively dull. However, the United Nations and many other international organizations have been continuously publishing research reports and leading international dialogues, hoping to maintain public awareness of climate change during this period and maintain the momentum of climate negotiations.
At the Petersburg Climate Forum, the OECD released a new study showing that emissions reduction does not necessarily mean a burden on a country's economic development, and even promotes economic growth.
The study shows that if the G20 countries are now implementing greener economic policies, then by 2021 their average economic growth will be 1% higher than no measures, and by 2050, the increase will be Will expand to 2.8%. If we consider the benefits of environmental governance in reducing natural disasters, by 2050, the G20 countries will grow by nearly 5% more than no measures.
These additional growth will come mainly from the decline in spending on traditional energy sources. According to the study, if the Paris Agreement is to achieve the goal of controlling global temperature rises to within 2 degrees Celsius before the pre-industrial revolution, the G20 countries will spend an additional $0.6 trillion per year on infrastructure over the next 15 years to make them even more Energy saving and environmental protection. But a greener infrastructure can save these countries $1.7 trillion in energy spending each year. In other words, on the whole, a greener infrastructure will generate $0.9 trillion in annual revenue for the G20 countries.
The results of this study echo the views of the Chinese government. At the Petersburg Climate Forum, Xie Zhenhua also said that the economic benefits of emission reductions are greater than the burden it brings. "Developing the economy, improving people's livelihood, and protecting the environment can achieve a win-win situation," he said.
He said that after the government set targets for emission reductions, it pointed out the direction and market for the business community, increased the momentum of economic growth, and pointed out the direction for environmental investment and technological innovation. At present, the employment of China's environmental protection industry is 32 million, and will increase to 69 million by 2030.
Obviously, if the United States decides to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, China will become the dominant " agenda setter" in the international process of climate governance.
Set Rule for Guide Rail, Guide Rail Locator, Location Rule of Guide Rail, Locating Rule of Guide Rail
We carry high quality Set Rule for Guide Rail for all major elevator and escalator brands
for OTIS Elevators, ThyssenKrupp Elevators, Schindler Elevators, KONE Elevators, Mitsubishi Elevators, Fujitec Elevators, Hitachi Elevators, Toshiba Elevators, Fuji Elevators, Express Elevators, Sigma Elevators, LG Elevators, Hyundai Elevators, BLT Elevators, CANNY Elevators, SJEC Elevators, KOYO Elevators
Set Rule for Guide Rail, Guide Rail Locator, Location Rule of Guide Rail, Locating Rule of Guide Rail
CEP Elevator Products ( China ) Co., Ltd. , https://www.china-elevators.com