Abstract The General Administration of Customs announced on the 13th that the total value of China's imports and exports in 2014 was 26.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over 2013. Among them, exports were 14.39 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; imports were 12.04 trillion yuan, down 0.6%. annual...
The General Administration of Customs announced on the 13th that in 2014 China's total import and export value was 26.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over 2013. Among them, exports were 14.39 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; imports were 12.04 trillion yuan, down 0.6%. The annual trade surplus was 2.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.9% over 2013, a record high. Zheng Yuesheng, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the General Statistics Department, said at the press conference that as China's economic development enters a new normal, foreign trade has entered a new normal characterized by steady growth, structural adjustment and quality improvement. The overall growth rate of China's foreign trade will be higher than that of 2014. In the short-term, as the foreign trade export leading index fell for three consecutive months, it indicates that China's export growth in the first quarter of 2015 still faces certain pressure. The surplus may be seasonally narrowed
According to customs data, the foreign trade export pilot index was 40.1 in December 2014, down 0.7 from November, and fell for three consecutive months, hitting a new low since December 2013.
Zheng Yuesheng said that the negative factors that inhibit China's foreign trade in 2014 will continue for some time, including the weak global economic recovery, the weakening of domestic low-cost advantages, the decline in foreign investment in manufacturing, and the continued decline in commodity prices in the international market.
According to the latest macro research report released by CICC, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports will fall in January, but the export growth rate will still be stronger than imports. The foreign trade surplus in January is expected to remain high. In the past five years, the foreign trade surplus in February and March has shown a seasonal narrowing trend, and even a deficit in a single month. It is expected that the foreign trade surplus will be narrowed seasonally in February and March 2015.
The record high trade surplus may continue to remain high in the short term. Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at the Financial Markets Department of China Merchants Bank [microblogging] believes that the trade surplus continues to operate at a high level. Before the surplus narrowed significantly, the renminbi material remained stable or even slightly appreciated, making it difficult to see the devaluation space. The Economic Blue Book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently predicts that the import and export growth rate will be around 6.6% in 2015, with exports increasing by 7.5% and imports increasing by 5.5%.
In 2014, foreign trade has made positive progress in improving quality, improving efficiency, and superior structure. This situation is expected to continue to increase in 2015. Zheng Yuesheng said that in 2014, China's foreign trade development showed five highlights, including: the increase in the proportion of foreign trade to the bilateral trade in emerging markets, indicating that market diversification has made positive progress; the proportion of general trade has increased, indicating that the trade pattern is more reasonable, and the domestic economic development The strength is more prominent; the proportion of private enterprises in the main body of foreign trade has increased, indicating that the endogenous power of foreign trade has been further enhanced; the structure of import and export commodities has been continuously optimized and upgraded; the terms of trade prices have been improved.
"One Belt, One Road" material boosts import and export
The industry believes that the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road†strategy will help boost imports and exports.
According to preliminary estimates by the General Administration of Customs, in 2014, the bilateral trade value of China's import and export with the “Belt and Road†countries or regions was close to 7 trillion yuan, an increase of about 7%, accounting for a quarter of China's total foreign trade import and export value during the same period. Among them, China's exports to countries along the “Belt and Road†have grown by more than 10%, and imports have grown by about 1.5%. Zheng Yuesheng said that with the continuous evolution of the “One Belt and One Roadâ€, this data will be further improved.
In addition to the “Belt and Roadâ€, the newly established Tianjin-Jiangxi Free Trade Zone is also expected to boost foreign trade. Zheng Yuesheng said that regarding the state's preparation for the newly established three free trade pilot zones in Tianjin, Fujian and Guangdong, the relevant overall plan is currently being developed. The General Administration of Customs will actively cooperate with the formulation of the plan to further replicate and promote the successful experience of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. Since the Shanghai Free Trade Zone has been in operation for more than a year, the customs system has promoted and replicated 23 basic systems of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in special supervision zones across the country, and achieved remarkable results.
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