The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Center in February 2013 was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the main sub-indices also fell back to varying degrees. But this kind of...
The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center in February 2013 was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The main sub-indices also declined to varying degrees. However, this fall is mainly due to the normal fluctuations caused by the Spring Festival factor, and the fluctuation range is smaller than the historical period. At present, the industrial production situation is basically stable, and the market outlook for enterprises is also relatively optimistic. In general, the economic operation is still in a stable range. In response to the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers in February, special analyst Zhang Liqun said: "Continue the situation in January, the PMI index continued to decline slightly in February, indicating that economic growth will shift from a rebound to a stable. The new orders index and export order index continue to decline, indicating The order level continued to decline. Although the expected index of production and operation activities rose, the purchase price index began to fall, indicating that the optimistic market expectation will change. On the other hand, the market demand growth rate remained stable, eliminating the seasonal factors, and the export growth rate remained at two. The number of digits and demand conditions show that the economic growth rate will not drop significantly. The overall PMI index changes and market demand trends, it is expected that the overall economic operation will be relatively stable in the future."
The new order index fell back. The new order index for this month was 50.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry perspective, 11 industries including ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, special equipment manufacturing and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are higher than 50%; wood processing and furniture manufacturing, textile industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, etc. 10 The industry is less than 50%. From the regional perspective, the central part is higher than 50%; the eastern, western and northeastern parts are less than 50%. In terms of enterprise scale, large enterprises are higher than 50%; medium and small enterprises are lower than 50%.
The production index fell back. The production index for this month was 51.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry perspective, 9 industries including non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing are higher than 50%; wood processing and furniture manufacturing, textile industry, agricultural and sideline food plus 12 industries such as industry are below 50%. From the regional perspective, the central, western and northeastern parts are higher than 50%; the eastern part is less than 50%. In terms of enterprise scale, large enterprises are higher than 50%; medium and small enterprises are lower than 50%.
The import index and the new export order index fell. The import index for this month was 48.1%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month. From the industry point of view, food and beverages refined tea manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing and other 9 industries are higher than 50%; wood processing and furniture manufacturing, textile and apparel industry, paper printing and cultural and educational entertainment 12 industries such as supplies manufacturing are below 50%.
The new export order index for this month was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry perspective, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, food and wine and beverage refined tea manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing industries, etc., more than 50%; wood processing and furniture 13 industries such as manufacturing, textiles and metal products are less than 50%.
The raw material inventory index fell. The raw material inventory index for this month was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products industry, special equipment manufacturing, metal products industry and other 11 industries are higher than 50%; agricultural and sideline food processing industry, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, textile industry and other 10 industries are low At 50%.
The purchase price index fell. The purchase price index for this month was 55.5%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the industry point of view, only the non-metallic mineral products industry and computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industry are less than 50%, and the remaining 19 industries are more than 50%. Among them, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, petroleum processing and coking industry account for more than 60%. From the regional perspective, the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions are both above 50%, with an index between 54.8% and 56.7%.
Production and operation activities are expected to rise. The expected index of production and operation activities this month was 64.6%, up 8.7 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of the industry, all 21 industries are above 50%, of which more than 70% are in the automotive industry and the electrical machinery manufacturing industry.
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Survey Description
1. Explanation of main indicators
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled from the monthly survey results of the company's purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production, and circulation. It is the first international monitoring trend for macroeconomic trends. One of the sex indexes has a strong predictive and early warning effect. PMI usually takes 50% as the cut-off point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the expansion of manufacturing economy; below 50% reflects the contraction of manufacturing economy.
2. Scope of investigation
It covers 31 major industries in the manufacturing sector of the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2011). Since January 2013, the survey sample has expanded from 820 to 3,000. Due to the small sample size and insufficient representation in some industries, some industries with less sample size have been merged according to the principle of similar homogeneity in the industry, and 21 industries have been merged.
3. Survey method
The manufacturing purchasing manager survey adopts the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, which is based on the major categories of the manufacturing industry. The sample size of the industry is allocated according to the added value of the added value of the manufacturing industry. The sample use in the layer and the main business of the enterprise. The probability of business income is proportional to the extraction.
The survey was organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. The national statistical network direct reporting system was used to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey on the enterprise procurement manager.
4. Calculation method
The manufacturing purchasing manager questionnaire covers production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations, etc. 12 Questions. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are responding positively plus half of the percentage of the answer.
PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, weight It is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is the inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index.
5. Division of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions
The eastern region includes 10 provinces (cities) including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan; the central region includes six provinces including Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan; Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, 12 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions); the northeastern region includes Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces.
6. Seasonal adjustment
The Purchasing Manager Survey is a monthly survey that is subject to seasonal fluctuations and data fluctuations. The PMI composite index and each sub-index released today are seasonally adjusted data.
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