Recently, the “Implementation Opinions of the Ministry of Railways on Encouraging and Guiding Private Capital Investment in Railways†(referred to as “Implementation Opinionsâ€) was issued, and railway investment opened its doors to private capital, and whether a series of incentive policies can make private capital “heartbeat†still to be practiced. test. Experts believe that there are still three major obstacles to the private capital investment railway. Breaking the "glass door" of private capital investment railways has yet to promote the reform of the railway management system.
The refinement of the railway opening policy has caused market response
The "Implementation Opinions" further refines the reform of the railway investment and financing system, and proposes to encourage private capital to participate in the construction of facilities projects including railway trunk lines, passenger dedicated lines, intercity railways, and coal transportation channels. Private capital is allowed to participate in the restructuring and restructuring of railway non-transport enterprises through participation in shares, holdings, and asset acquisitions. Once the "Implementation Opinions" was released, it caused a strong reaction from the market. On May 21, the Shanghai-Shenzhen Railway Infrastructure Concept rose as a whole. China Railway Second Bureau, Guoheng Railway, Dinghan Technology and Te Ruide all closed at the daily limit.
The willingness of the Ministry of Railways to encourage and attract private capital to invest in railways has long been revealed. As early as 2004, the "Guidance Catalogue for Foreign Investment Industries" and China's commitment to join the WTO proposed that China's railways initially opened up four major areas to encourage non-public capital to enter, namely: railway construction, railway transportation, and railway transportation equipment. Manufacturing sector and railway diversified business areas.
In July 2005, the Ministry of Railways also issued the “Implementation Opinions on Encouraging and Supporting the Participation of Non-Public Economy in Railway Construction and Managementâ€, which removed the policy obstacles for the reform of China's railway investment and financing system and clarified the opening to non-public capital. Railway construction, railway transportation and other fields, but because of the greater resistance, it has not really started.
From 2006 to 2007, the state successively announced relevant documents to promote the reform of the railway investment and financing system.
However, the proportion of non-holding joint venture railways in the passenger and cargo transportation of the national railway network is relatively low. According to the Ministry of Railways, the number of passengers sent by the National Railways in 2011 was 186,26 million, of which 179,199 million were national railways and 9.91 million were non-controlled joint-venture railways; the total volume of national freight shipments was 3.9263 trillion tons, including 329,535 million tons of national railways. The non-holding joint venture railway was 415.49 million tons.
From the perspective of railway passenger and freight traffic, the national railway accounts for more than 80% of the total freight volume, and the non-holding joint venture railway is less than 20%; the national railway accounts for more than 95% of the total passenger traffic, and the non-controlled joint venture railway is less than 5%.
The "Implementation Opinions" announced this time will further encourage and guide the content and methods of private capital investment in railways. It is the most specific investment plan to date. The industry believes that this will have a positive impact on the railway to attract private investment.
There are still three major obstacles to private capital investment in railways
Experts believe that although the railway's policy of attracting private capital is more detailed, the “glass door†of private capital investment railways still exists, which is mainly determined by the characteristics of railway investment and operation.
First, railway investment is large and the cycle is long. Sun Zhang, an expert on rail transit research at Tongji University, believes that the single-line investment in railways is tens of billions of yuan, which is difficult for ordinary private enterprises to bear, so they are discouraged. Moreover, unlike railways and highways, roads only need to be built, but railways are both roads and vehicles, and the investment is huge.
At the same time, the construction of a single-track railway usually takes two to four years, and the period of return on income is longer. Compared with the highway, the return period of the railway is three times that of the highway. For example, after the Japanese Shinkansen was completed and put into use, it was only 8 years before it was profitable in the case of careful calculation; the French high-speed railway realized profitability in 10 years. The long cycle is a test of the cash flow of private capital, and investing in railways requires a lot of money.
Second, the return on earnings is difficult to calculate independently. Li Hongchang, deputy director of the Institute of Transportation Economics Theory and Policy of Beijing Jiaotong University, believes that the railway has the characteristics of network operation, and the calculation of railway revenue is also calculated through the whole network, rather than the calculation of single line input and output, so it is difficult to calculate a certain The income of a specific railway line. Generally speaking, private capital investment is built on a single-track railway. The benefits of the network are not equal to the benefits of the line. The difficulty of evaluating the benefits of a single line is very discreet for private capital.
In the railway operation, the national railway is a family, and the cost is inseparable. If some of the marketization is taken out, cost accounting and income accounting are difficult to carry out independently. Independent accounting cannot be carried out, and the return on investment of private capital cannot be guaranteed.
Third, the tariff mechanism and operational scheduling of traditional railway systems have caused private capital to lose control of its products. The railway freight rate system is calculated according to the average cost of the whole road, and the cost item includes both the railway construction cost and the vehicle cost, instead of pricing according to the specific cost of a certain line. This has led to the private capital's investment in railway construction, but it is impossible to control the pricing of products.
At the same time, the train operation plan is uniformly deployed by the road bureau. China's railway train transportation production centralized scheduling, unified command. According to the distribution of cargo flow and passenger flow, the railway system arranges each vehicle to the required place to achieve overall optimization. Therefore, the density and time of each line of vehicles are all deployed by the railway management department.
Private capital has a road and a car, but there is no right to speak. Can you run and run a few times, all coordinated by the Ministry of Railways, which is correct from the perspective of the whole road bureau, and for new investors, it is their own products. Production lost its decision-making power.
In addition, rail transport emphasizes public welfare and cross-subsidizes between different transport products and different regions. For example, for the needs of public welfare, the grain and coal freight rates are relatively low, railway transportation is not profitable, and the railways must be profitable through other channels to form cross-subsidies. Another example is that the characteristics of the road network in the east and the west are not the same as the profit level. To achieve the balance between the east and the west, it is necessary to implement the capacity allocation, and try to "sink a bowl of water" in the income accounting. These are all driven by the whole body. The private capital that invested in high-quality assets is difficult to accept the bill for the loss of the western region.
The need to step up the management system reform to attract private capital needs to be strengthened
Experts believe that attracting private capital into railway investment has realistic urgency and long-term necessity, but private capital investment in railways needs to be gradual and gradual, and it cannot be done overnight.
Li Hongchang believes that from the experience of the United States and Japan, the contradiction between supply and demand of railway investment is the driving force for railway investment and financing reform. Take Japan as an example. In 1987, Japan’s railway construction liabilities were about 30.7 trillion yen, accounting for about 17% of GDP. Railway companies suffered serious losses, and the government put investment and financing reform on the agenda. The same situation has also appeared in the United States. Therefore, the railway relies on highly indebted financing and bonds will inevitably lead to investment and financing reform, which is the regular trend of the railway industry.
At the same time, it is not feasible for the railway to rely too much on civil or social capital to solve financial difficulties. Under the current conditions, the railway will be market-oriented, and in the short term it will be a "utopian" concept, and it is not operational. Civil or social capital investment in the railway needs to undergo a systematic and tortuous process, and in the short term it still cannot change the dominant position of state capital.
Fundamentally accelerating private capital investment in railways also needs to accelerate the pace of railway management system reform.
Li Hongchang believes that it is imperative to separate the government and enterprises of the railway system. The railway must realize the transitional mode of enterprise operation. The railway company can be established with reference to the German model, and different sectors such as passenger transport and freight transport are gradually separated to realize management. clarify. At the same time, the supervision function of the Ministry of Railways needs to be strengthened. As the industry supervision department is different from the previous construction, operation and management, the formulation of standards, standards, and improvement of supervision means need to be gradually realized.
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