A shale gas revolution is spreading to the whole world with the United States as the center. From Europe to South America, Asia, from developed countries to emerging markets, it is gradually getting involved and experiencing the power and impact of this "revolution." As the country with the largest shale gas reserves, China is deeply aware of the opportunities and challenges. At present, the preparation for the second round of public bidding for shale gas is in place and is expected to be officially launched in early September. What is the intensity of shale gas exploration and development in China? How does the coal industry respond to or shrink the demand that comes? A global adjustment of energy is ready to go. He Stone Mountain: benefit from shale gas revolution in the United States become more energy optimization shale gas revolution in the United States transformed from a natural gas importer to exporter. In 2009, the United States surpassed Russia to become the world's largest natural gas producer. On August 3, the US Department of Energy said that the United States will gradually phase out a large number of coal-fired units, and will stop using 27 million kilowatts of coal-fired power plants in the next four years. The shale gas revolution has reinforced the determination of the United States to substantially eliminate backward coal-fired power units. According to the data, on August 6, the US New York Stock Exchange natural gas September futures contract price was 2.91 US dollars / million British fever. In the previous April, the price was as low as $1.9/million, which was 86% lower than the highest price of $13.21 set in July 2008. Electricity prices have jumped in one of the most widely used areas of natural gas. According to the US Energy Information Administration, in April this year, the price of natural gas power plants in the United States was $2.85 per thousand cubic feet, down from the previous highest price of $12.41 in June 2008. 77%. On August 6, Japan's onshore LNG (liquefied natural gas) September contract price (linked to crude oil prices) was $13.23 per million British fever. US natural gas prices are two percent off. The United States is a country with a lack of conventional natural gas. Its natural gas price can hit a new low. The most important one is the development of unconventional oil and gas resources in the United States that has lasted for a hundred years. In the past ten years, it has suddenly set off a "quiet revolution." In 1997, Mitchell Energy first used hydraulic fracturing technology in the shale belt operations in the Barnett Basin, which kicked off the US shale gas revolution. In 2003, the application of horizontal well technology brought the development of shale gas in the United States into a new historical stage. Statistics show that in 2005, the US shale gas production was only 19.6 billion cubic meters, followed by an explosive growth in the following six years. In 2006, it was 28.3 billion cubic meters, in 2010 it was 138.7 billion cubic meters, and in 2011 it was 172 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 43.1%. This year, due to the low price of shale gas, developers' enthusiasm was affected and investment turned to shale oil. According to industry insiders, as the price of shale gas rebounds, the future of shale gas in the United States will continue to flourish. The shale gas revolution transformed the United States from a natural gas importer into a natural gas exporter. In 2009, the United States surpassed Russia to become the world's largest natural gas producer. Natural gas is mainly used in natural gas power generation, natural gas chemical industry, urban fuel and natural gas vehicles. The development of shale gas brought energy security to the United States, which brought about the rejuvenation of the US manufacturing industry, stimulated the development of the US domestic economy, and made the United States take the lead in getting out of the financial crisis. After the explosive growth of US shale gas production brought about a sharp drop in prices, the coal-electricity industry was the most affected. Among the newly planned power plants in the United States in 2011-2015, coal-fired fuels accounted for 19.03%, 18.31%, 2.42%, 6.28%, and 0.49%, respectively, while natural gas-fired power plants averaged in the 2011-2015 plan. The proportion is 54%. Cheap and abundant natural gas and electricity make the economic advantages of the US natural gas chemical industry appear. The North American chemical industry is thriving, and the US manufacturing industry is reviving. There is a revival in the revival, and the energy and related industries that are being replaced are rapidly declining. Wind power, nuclear power and coal power generation projects have been postponed. Coal has become an energy source for sales. In the first half of this year, US coal exports increased significantly. After the successful development of shale gas in the United States, more than 30 countries around the world have started shale gas exploration and development, but shale gas development in countries outside North America is still in its infancy. Canada is the second country to achieve commercial exploitation of shale gas after the United States. In 2009, production reached 7.2 billion cubic meters. However, industry insiders told reporters that Canada's existing oil and gas pipeline network equipment mostly uses the United States as a place of consumption. The surge in US shale gas production has reduced the demand for imported natural gas, and the sales of shale gas in Canada have been sluggish, which has affected the development growth rate. . Pan Jiping, director and researcher of the Oil and Gas Resource Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, believes that due to the uncertainties or immaturity of geological characteristics, resource potential, technical conditions and market conditions in different countries and regions, the global development of shale gas in other regions except North America It is still in its infancy, so industrialization will take a long time. A plausible concept is that it takes years to find a large oil field, and for a discovered oil field, it usually takes 7-10 years from proven reserves to production scale. The global shale gas industrialization process needs time to accumulate, which makes the global impact of the US shale gas revolution, except for its revolutionary significance in the United States, only shows chronic infiltration in other parts of the world. The prices of natural gas in North America, Asia and Europe are very different. After the international natural gas price has been continuously low, the international crude oil price is still a record high of more than 100 US dollars per barrel since the end of 2008. Ken beginning of the current land-based exploration industry to take time 2015, China's shale gas exploration work will be based, large-scale development is difficult to start; shale gas policy is being developed to support Sinopec Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development Zhang Kang, deputy director of the Advisory Committee, said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that it will take time for China's shale gas industrialization. This is determined by many factors such as shale gas exploration status, development policy, and mining technology in China. It is understood that before 2015, China's shale gas will be mainly based on exploration work, and large-scale development is difficult to start. Currently, the relevant blocks for the first and second shale gas prospecting tenders enter the drilling phase. According to the exploration rights contract, the first batch of Sinopec and Henan CBM companies will complete the exploration of 4237 square kilometers in two blocks in July 2014, and the initial exploration of the 6567 square kilometers shale gas test block of CNPC will also be carried out. End. Judging from the experience of the United States, its shale gas development is inseparable from the strong support of government policies. In 1978, the US federal government issued the "Energy Accidents Profit Law", which implemented a 15-year preferential policy for shale gas development. The state governments implemented five corresponding tax incentives, and even some states have shale gas. Development does not impose a production tax. China's shale gas support policy is being formulated. However, it is unlikely that these policies will be clarified in the short term. Li Liang, director of the China Shale Gas Policy Research Office, is participating in the formulation of this policy. According to him, the support policy for shale gas is somewhat relaxed compared to CBM. In addition, 66% of the shale gas blocks in the distribution of shale gas resources are in the oil and gas mining rights zone of CNPC and Sinopec. These require the Ministry of Land and Resources to coordinate with PetroChina, Sinopec and local policies. Large-scale mining of shale gas also requires the construction of pipe network systems, gas station, pressure station, pigging station and other ground engineering facilities. Pipeline construction, road and railway facilities are also required for outbound transportation. These need to be started after the commercial value of mining is clear. Yang Jianhong, deputy director of the Pipeline Institute of the China Petroleum Planning Institute, believes that the development of shale gas should be the "13th Five-Year Plan". China's shale gas mining technology is still in the exploration stage. Although the concept of shale gas technology is very clear, there are many proprietary technologies in the specific process that require experience. In addition, shale gas needs to break through the system and policies, and the follow-up support of the policy remains to be seen. Even if all the above can be implemented, there is uncertainty in whether shale gas can grow and develop. A comparable case is the development of coalbed methane. In 2006, China's coalbed methane began to commercialize with preferential policies. In 2011, China's coalbed methane production was 10.6 billion cubic meters, far from the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" target. Among them, the ground mining of 2.1 billion cubic meters, did not complete the planned amount of 5 billion cubic meters, and most of the CBM operators lost money. Li Liang, a responsible person of China United Coalbed Methane Company, believes that the overlapping of mining rights is an important reason for the delayed completion of CBM. Mr. Liang from China Coal Industry Association said that after some coalbed methane extraction, it can not enter the pipe network, and can only be used in close local areas. This is also the reason for the low utilization rate of coalbed methane in China. PetroChina currently holds more than 80% of the country's natural gas pipeline network, a monopoly business model, and PetroChina itself also operates coalbed methane, which is not conducive to the entry of coalbed methane into the existing pipeline network. Both shale gas and coalbed methane are unconventional natural gas. There are many similar places in production, sales and commercial environment. Problems encountered with coalbed methane may also occur on shale gas. When the essay: shale gas tender look into two gas touchstone change compared to the first round, the second round is significant, could mean a major change in the management system of the 8th prospecting oil and gas sector resources in China, reporters from land resources The authorities of the Ministry of Information were informed that the preparations for the second round of public bidding for shale gas are in place and are expected to be officially launched in early September. According to Zhang Dawei, deputy director of the Oil and Gas Resource Strategy Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, in addition to the original oil and gas companies, all types of capital are interested in this. At present, more than 30 private enterprises have participated in the tender intention investigation. It is reported that the number of intention-registered enterprises has reached more than 70, and its enthusiasm can be seen. In fact, after the news that the second round of bidding will be carried out from the rock gas, the market fever has not been reduced, and the specific time for the tender is also closely watched by the market. "The preparation for the second round of shale gas tendering is already in place. It was originally planned to be carried out in early August, but since the arrangement is not open, it will be pushed to the beginning of September." The above-mentioned authoritative sources revealed to reporters. The first public bidding for shale gas prospecting rights was on June 27, 2010, when six state-owned enterprises including PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Yanchang Oil, Zhonglian Coal, and Henan Coalbed Methane were invited to participate in the bidding for four blocks. right. Finally, Sinopec and Henan CBM Development and Utilization Co., Ltd. each won a block and the other two blocks flowed. Pan Jiping, a researcher at the Oil and Gas Strategy Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, believes that compared with the first round of shale gas exploration rights bidding, the second round of shale gas exploration rights bidding is more significant, which may mean one of the exploration rights management systems in China's oil and gas resources field. Major changes. All along, China has implemented a state-owned monopoly system for oil and gas resources exploration and exploitation. The first round of bidding was invited to the bidding system. The four enterprises with qualifications for oil and gas exploration and exploitation, namely CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC and Yanchang Oil Mine, and two state-owned enterprises such as China United Coalbed Methane and Henan CBM were invited. The second round of shale gas bidding requires only more than 300 million registered capital for bidding enterprises, and has qualification for gas exploration, but there is no state-owned or privately-owned identity. This is a bold attempt to reform the mining rights management system in the oil and gas resources field. The important reason for the increased interest in shale gas development. The reporter learned that among the more than 70 applicants, there are state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, such as Guanghui Energy, Honghua Group, and Zhejiang Haiyue. In addition, there are many non-oil and gas companies operating in the list, such as the five major power central enterprises and Shenhua Zhongmei and other coal central enterprises. According to Pan Jiping, shale gas is expected to become a touchstone or attempt of China's natural gas reform. For example, the “12th Five-Year Plan†for national shale gas has been clarified, and the price of shale gas mined is subject to market pricing. At present, traditional natural gas is still dominated by government pricing (only in the trial of the highest price limit in Guangdong and Guangxi), which makes China's natural gas prices at a low level for a long time. The status of shale gas as a touchstone for natural gas reform can be seen. It is also known that a series of fiscal and tax incentives and subsidy policies to support the development of China's shale gas industry are being studied and formulated. It is understood that since 2009, China's shale gas exploration and development has accelerated. At the end of 2011, the Ministry of Land and Resources approved shale gas as an independent mineral, meaning that its exploration and development will no longer be constrained by the oil and gas franchise. In March 2012, China's first shale gas development plan - the shale gas "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" was introduced. According to the plan, by 2015, the national shale gas resource potential survey and evaluation will be basically completed, and the shale gas geological reserves will be 1 trillion cubic meters, the recoverable reserves will be 200 billion cubic meters, and the annual output will be 6.5 billion cubic meters. Natural gas is a clean energy source. China is a country rich in coal and lacks oil and gas. Conventional natural gas reserves are small. Relevant data show that the conventional recoverable reserves of conventional natural gas in China are 3 trillion cubic meters, and the per capita recoverable reserves of natural gas are only 7.1% of the world average. However, according to preliminary estimates by the US Energy Agency, China's shale gas recoverable resources rank first in the world, reaching 36 trillion cubic meters. The data released by the Ministry of Land and Resources last year is that China's shale gas recoverable resources are about 25 trillion cubic meters. If China's shale gas forms an industrialized mining scale as soon as possible, it can largely alleviate or partially alleviate the shortage of natural gas supply in China and avoid the excessive and excessive growth of foreign dependence. At the same time, this is also in line with the requirements of the global economy for low carbon and environmental protection. Wide impact of: coal energy mix has changed or meet the greatest challenges of shale gas once production form, the impact on China may be the world's largest coal. In addition, the coal chemical industry will also be affected by the impact of shale gas, the US coal stocks have been bearish in the past year, seriously underperforming the index. Essence Securities research report shows that as of April this year, the worst coal stock in the United States was Arch Coal, which underperformed the index by 75 points, and the relatively strong AngloAmerica also underperformed 31 points. China's rich coal is short of oil and gas. In 2011, China's coal consumption accounted for about 67% of primary energy, making it the country with the largest coal consumption in the world. From the US experience, once China's shale gas and global shale gas capacity is formed, China's coal may be affected by the world's largest, although it will take ten years or even longer. First, the demand for coal is facing a decline. After China's shale gas production capacity is released, China's coal consumption growth may decline. At the same time, overseas shale gas will show a global substitution effect on coal. As a major coal consumer, China has formed a series of industrial chains such as coal production, transportation, port handling, trade and processing. Shanxi, Shaanxi Yulin, Inner Mongolia Erdos and other provinces and cities have formed a large economic province (city) based on coal. Therefore, the coal industry chain and coal city have become the most sensitive areas or industries for shale gas. A person from the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association believes that the development of shale gas will have a great impact on the existing coal industry and coal city. However, most coal companies currently seem to be not sensitive to this. Among the more than 70 enterprises registered for the second shale gas tendering in China, only a few coal companies such as Shenhua, China Coal and Guanghui Co., Ltd. participated, but the five major power central enterprises and some local electric enterprises actively registered. Second, it has put pressure on coal prices. Huang Teng, a coal trade expert, wondered why the coal price forecast for this year is always inaccurate. Later, he found the answer from the US "Shale Gas Revolution." “A large number of US coal exports have affected international coal prices.†The United States is the second largest coal producer with a production of about 1 billion tons. US power plants have led to a decline in US coal demand since 2012, and inventories have hit a new high in eight years. According to the US Energy Administration, coal consumption in the power industry will fall by 133 million tons in 2012, with a range of 14.3%. Exports have become the demands of US coal companies. In 2011, US coal exports were 107 million short tons, accounting for 8.8% of global coal trade. Yang Lihong, an coal analyst at Essence Securities, believes that the US's increase in coal exports is enough to cause international coal prices to fall. In January 2011, Australia's BJ thermal coal price weekly index was at $134/ton, and all the way down to nearly $90 last week, a drop of more than 30%. In addition, the coal chemical economy will be affected. Due to the continuous high international crude oil prices, since 2003, Chinese companies have raised the hot investment in coal chemical industry. Coal-based alcohol ether, calcium carbide process PVC, coal-to-liquids projects, coal-to-olefins and coal-to-gas projects have become the citron. Some people in the coal chemical industry estimate that when the international crude oil price is higher than 50 or 60 US dollars per barrel, the coal-to-liquid and coal-to-olefin projects will show economics. If shale gas depresses crude oil prices after global production capacity is formed, the economic advantages of coal chemical industry will be lost. In addition, natural gas chemical industry also squeezes into the coal chemical market, just as the US natural gas chemical industry squeezes out petrochemicals. Pan Jiping, a researcher at the Oil and Gas Strategy Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, believes that China's energy structure is different from that of the United States, and coal's position is even more important. Strategically speaking, the degree of development of shale gas in China is not only an economic comparison, but also a national energy strategy, a low-carbon strategy and industrial security.
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