According to the analysis of Energy Trend, the impact of the earthquake in Japan on the global solar industry is slightly less than that of other industries. The main impact is concentrated on the supply of monocrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline germanium. In terms of industrial distribution, the Japanese solar cell industry is concentrated in the Kansai region, and major manufacturing facilities such as Sharp, Kyocera, Mtsubishi, and Sanyo are concentrated in Osaka, Shiga, Nara, and Kyoto. At this stage, the supply chain is operating normally under the influence of equipment and power. In the supply and demand of polycrystalline germanium, mainly based on M. Setek and Tokuyama. At present, M.Setek's factory is located in the hardest hit area of ​​the earthquake, which makes the supply of polycrystalline silicon with an annual production capacity of 3,000 tons completely shut down. On the other hand, since M. Setek is the main supplier of the main monocrystalline silicon wafers in the world, it is also affected by the earthquake, and the factory with an annual production capacity of 120MW is currently out of operation. At present, M. Setek's 80% capacity is fully supplied to SunPower in the United States. It is estimated that SunPower will be affected by the impact, and the spot supply of monocrystalline silicon wafers will be tight. In Tokuyama, the factory producing polycrystalline germanium is located in Yamaguchi Prefecture and is not directly affected by the earthquake. However, due to the shortage of power supply in Kanto, it is estimated that the annual production capacity of 8,200 tons will not be fully produced. EnergyTrend estimates that the global supply of polycrystalline germanium will reach between 220,000 tons and 240,000 tons in 2011. The combined production capacity of M. Setek and Tokuyama will account for about 5% of global supply, and this year's contracts have been signed. EnergyTrend believes that the impact on contract prices is small, but in the situation that the spot supply has been tight, the spot price of global polysilicon will rise rapidly. On the other hand, the disaster situation at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan continues to expand. In the event that the scope of radiation dust increases, it will likely affect the solar cell production line in Kansai, which will affect the supply and demand of global solar cells. In addition, due to the current shortage of power supply in Japan, if the power supply needs to be increased in a short period of time, increasing the installed capacity of the solar power generation system is a solution that can be considered. However, the Japanese government is currently short of financial resources, and whether it can bear the relevant financial expenditures needs to be carefully evaluated. Therefore, whether the demand in the Japanese market will further increase in 2011 remains to be seen.
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