Market shrinking overcapacity, photovoltaic industry is intensifying winter

The winter of the photovoltaic industry is still intensifying. Whether it is a leading enterprise or a small and medium-sized enterprise, the operating performance has generally fallen sharply. Experts believe that it will take a long time for PV companies to get out of the cold winter. As of the 23rd, the three quarterly reports of domestic PV companies listed overseas have basically been released. Under the current situation that the average selling price of PV modules has been hit hard, the company's performance has dropped significantly. From the perspective of several leading companies, Suntech’s power loss was the most serious. The net loss in the third quarter reached US$116.4 million, compared with US$33.1 million in the same period last year. The company’s third quarter loss was US$114.5 million and its gross profit was -1700. Ten thousand dollars, while the same period last year, its gross profit was once 150 million US dollars; CLP PV also did not escape the fate of the loss, the company's net loss in the third quarter was 31.3 million US dollars, gross profit was -19.9 million US dollars, the gross profit margin was -13.7%; In addition, Trina Solar also reported a loss of $31.5 million in the third quarter. At present, only Jinko Energy's profit is positive. The company's third quarter revenue was $279 million and net profit was $10.7 million, but this figure also fell sharply by 73.8% compared with the same period last year. In fact, in the face of pressure from changes in overseas markets, the performance of domestic listed PV companies is not satisfactory. Judging from the previously published three quarterly reports, the statistics of 24 China's photovoltaic power generation concept stocks disclosed in the three quarterly reports, the performance fell by eight, down from 16 cases, accounting for about 70% of the disclosed number. At the same time that most large-scale enterprises reported losses in the third quarter, the production situation of small and medium-sized enterprises was even more bleak. According to a survey conducted by CCID's Photovoltaic Industry Research Institute, more than half of China's small and medium-sized battery component companies have stopped production, 30% of production has been cut sharply, 10% to 20% of small-scale production cuts or efforts to maintain, and various levels of layoffs have begun. Gao Hongling, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, told the Economic Information Daily that since the second half of this year, the production and operation of enterprises have deteriorated sharply, and some enterprises have reduced production, stopped production or even closed down, and the industrial development situation is grim. Only one or two of the more than ten polysilicon enterprises in a central province of China are still maintaining production. Others have been discontinued and the number of layoffs has reached 2,000. Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, also pointed out that there are more than 500 enterprises in the entire photovoltaic industry. Currently, one-third of the SMEs in the entire industrial chain have a capacity utilization rate of between 20% and 30%. It can be said that they are in production or semi-discontinued. status. “Now SMEs still maintain 20% to 30% capacity utilization, or an increase in inventory. Most companies do not say that they have such market demand, but want to retain some key employees to prevent more employee turnover. So, all of them have stopped production.” The industry believes that the global economic shock, the shrinking market under the deterioration of the European debt crisis and the overcapacity caused by the two-year leap-forward development are important reasons for the PV industry to enter the cold winter. Gao Hongling believes that the price collapse of PV modules is the main reason for the general decline in the performance of listed companies in the third quarter. Imported polysilicon prices fell by 27% in October and component prices fell by 20%. At the end of the day, the rapid decline in prices is still caused by shrinking demand. "At present, the price is almost one-third lower than the cost, and the downstream companies are holding the attitude of buying up and not buying down, waiting for the cheaper, the market waits and sees a strong atmosphere, which further exacerbates the price drop." Shanghai Aerospace Li Hongbo, general manager of the photovoltaic business unit of the Electromechanical Co., Ltd., said. It is understood that the foreign market accounted for more than 93% of the entire PV industry market in China last year. Although it has declined this year, it is also above 80%. Such a high degree of dependence makes foreign markets have a direct impact on domestic PV companies. "We mainly rely on overseas business, but the current overseas business has decreased by 1/3, which has a greater impact on the company." Li Hongbo told reporters. He also pointed out that the key to domestic large PV companies is financial constraints, because bank policies are tightening and loans are difficult. Cui Rongqiang, chairman of the Shanghai Solar Energy Society, also said that domestic PV products, especially downstream components, are generally sold abroad. This year's foreign demand is relatively low. Countries such as Europe have cut subsidies, which has seriously affected the return on investment of downstream power station operators. According to reports, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics last year accounted for nearly 66.5% of the world's Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic began to adjust the subsidy program in the first half of the year, have cut the subsidy by more than 3%. The overcapacity in the country has further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand. "Inspired by the hot sales of photovoltaic products, many companies in the second half of last year desperately expanded their production capacity. These production capacity are just released this year, but the demand is sluggish. In addition, some countries adopt trade protectionism measures. The further imbalance. The price war, the inventory is more, these performances are all out." Li Shengmao said. According to Gao Hongling's rough estimate, there are more than 20 photovoltaic industries in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” in various places, and the output value can reach 2 trillion. In 2015, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics was only 45G W, and the global output value was 200 billion yuan. However, Zhao Yuwen, director of the Photovoltaic Special Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society, predicts that in the second half of next year, as the global economic situation improves, the photovoltaic industry will gradually recover. It is currently a good industrial adjustment period. "This winter season of the photovoltaic industry may freeze a large part of the enterprise. The process of freezing and freezing is also a process of integration. The threshold of the industry will be higher and higher in the future. The industry is still far from recovery, and it will take a long time to go out of the cold winter. Li Shengmao said.

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