Despite the good performance of the super-hard materials industry in the first half of 2011, the industry giants such as Huanghe Cyclone, Yu Diamond, Boshen Tools and Sifangda achieved double sales revenue and profit growth, but the corresponding macro economy was not satisfactory and gradually slowed down. The economic growth has been eclipsed by the high inflation, the slowdown in the infrastructure construction process and the weakening of domestic demand have become the sword of Damocles hanging on the macro economy. At the same time, the development of super-hard downstream industries such as building materials, ceramics, non-ferrous metals, hardware, and construction machinery is also mixed. Then, in the second half of 2011, where will the Chinese economy go? What is the development situation in the second half of the ultra-hard industry downstream? Xiaobian selects and organizes some information related to this for reference. Stagflation or soft landing In 2011, the side effects of the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan began to appear after the economic crisis. As governments at all levels invested too much money in infrastructure construction, such as real estate and high-speed rail construction, they led to the connection with them. The false prosperity of the industrial chain and the serious overcapacity, on the other hand, the currency overshoot has caused different levels of domestic inflation. The combined effect of the two reasons makes the manufacturing industry shrink sharply after the bottom of the 4 trillion economic stimulus effect, and the PMI is reduced to 50.9%. The PMI purchase manager index is expressed as a percentage, often with 50% as the boundary between economic strength and weakness. Point: When the index is higher than 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. When the index is lower than 50%, especially when it is very close to 40%, there is a worry of economic depression). Based on the rising raw materials, rising energy, the pressure of rising employment costs and the financing difficulties brought by bank interest rate hikes, enterprises in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces have closed down. On June 27, the 11th National People's Congress Standing Committee of Guangdong Province The report on the implementation of the National Economic and Social Development Plan for the first half of 2011 submitted by the Guangdong Province at the 17th meeting stated that the current production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises is more difficult. According to the survey, 50% of the companies indicated that they are at a loss or the profit rate is within 2%, and only 22.2% of the companies said that the profit rate is above 5%. The manufacturing industry, which is the lifeblood of China's economy, has hidden concerns and has sparked heated discussions at home and abroad on the Chinese economy. Dylan Grice, global strategist at Société Générale, clearly stated in an interview with the Berne Daily in Switzerland: China has hardly learned from the 2008 economic crisis in the West, and sloppy monetary policy has just stimulated speculation. . The nominal growth of the Chinese economy is almost 20% a year, and interest should be 20%, but the real interest rate is negative. Due to the control of capital's external circulation, the Chinese cannot transfer funds to foreign countries and do not deposit in banks because inflation is significantly higher than deposit interest. What choices do they have? Only buy and sell real estate. We have seen the boom in the construction industry induced by negative real interest rates in Spain, Ireland and the United States. Now that the Chinese are doing the same thing and chasing profit margins, this sounds a bit familiar, and they believe that miracles will not happen. In the long run, I am completely optimistic about China, but I see that the potential for a hard landing and shock therapy for risky assets is taking shape. "Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of China National Information Center, said at the "2011 Shanghai Trust Finance and Intelligence Forum" that the Chinese economy will not have stagflation or hard landing due to endogenous growth momentum. Zhu Baoliang said The latest statistics show that although the decline in automobile consumption caused by policy factors has affected the growth of retail sales, China’s retail sales growth is still ok this year; China’s employment situation is better, and urban employment increased by 4.627 million in the first quarter of this year. The unemployment rate is 4.1%; the high-tech industries such as electronics, medicine, and telecommunications are growing rapidly, and the service industry is gaining momentum; the transfer of eastern industries to the west has increased regional coordination. These all indicate that “the endogenous growth momentum of China’s economy is still there.†Judging from this, China's economic growth rate in the second half of the year will not be too slow, there will be no stagflation or hard landing, and it will still maintain a growth rate of 9% to 9.3% throughout the year. Construction machinery will enter the slow lane due to railways and highways, etc. The decline of fixed assets investment projects, the rapid expansion of construction machinery, and other reasons, the development of domestic construction machinery enterprises in the second half of this year There will be certain bottlenecks, and the performance growth of the whole industry may be lower than that of 2010. The old-fashioned problem of overcapacity will have a negative effect on the construction machinery industry in the second half of the year. A senior executive of Zoomlion said that the first quarter of this year The domestic excavator production capacity has exceeded 300,000 units, and the sales volume of excavators in China last year was only 160,000 units. This means that this year, under the premise that all enterprises do not expand production capacity, the sales volume will be doubled to digest these excess capacity. But this is totally unrealistic. Some insiders believe that in the second half of the year, under the background of the speeding up of affordable housing and water conservancy construction, the construction machinery industry is expected to be stable. The state requires 10 million sets of affordable housing to be started by October this year. It said that more than 5 million sets of affordable housing were started in China in June. If the remaining 5 million sets were completed in the next 4 months, the monthly start-up amount will be about 1.25 million sets. But expert Qiao Peitao pointed out In the second half of the year, the amount of construction of affordable housing will be slightly faster than that of the first half of the year, and there is no more than expected growth rate. A large degree of sales of construction machinery in the second half of the year. Ceramic sanitary ware industry in the second half or downturn from the China Building Sanitary Ceramics Association data show that the industry development in the first half of the year is still normal, the first five months of the country's ceramic tile production has reached 2.7 billion square meters, an increase of 23.5% over the same period of last year. The first five months of sanitary ceramics increased by 10% compared with the same period of last year, reaching 54 million square meters. The export also achieved a substantial increase in the case of dumping, despite the fact that ceramics The industry still maintains rationality in the second half of the year. The Secretary-General of Foshan Ceramics Industry Association believes that the development of the industry in the second half of the year is uncertain. Bao Jiejun, Chairman of Ou Shennuo Ceramics, said: It is estimated that the grim situation of ceramics in the middle and high-end market will gradually become more prominent in the second half of the year. He believes that The current policy of the country is to restrict everyone from buying a house. Moreover, this policy is not short-term and phased, but as a long-term policy, there is a strong momentum that “the real estate business will not surrender and never give upâ€, which will cause great demand for ceramics. influences. The head of Faenza sanitary ware believes that the growth in the first half of the year was very good and better than expected. The country’s regulation of real estate in early April has shown no signs of loosening. The state's policy on real estate regulation and control will still persist, so it will resolutely curb the continuous growth of housing prices in some cities, and objectively curb consumer demand. But some rigid requirements are always released, albeit with a delay in time. The fluctuation of the housing market will have an impact on the suppliers of building materials, but the impact is not that big. The whole second half of the year should have a very good growth compared to last year, but the growth rate is not comparable to the first half. The non-ferrous metals and steel industry will see a significant decline in economic growth expectations due to continued monetary tightening measures, which have begun to affect the prosperity of China's steel and some non-ferrous industries. According to news from relevant parties, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of the steel industry has dropped significantly since entering June, and the country's iron ore stocks have reached record highs. At the same time, the non-ferrous metals industry is also facing another round of tests. Analysts pointed out that the current slowdown in ore pressure and the speed of pick-up in the industry prove that the steel mill's production plan is slowing down in the later period, which is also the early indicator of the decline in the steel industry's prosperity. Industry insiders analyzed that with the effect of macroeconomic tightening in the first half of the year, steel mills' orders fell, capital pressures increased, coupled with the current rainy season and future high temperature weather, the industry will enter the traditional off-season, and short-term demand will face further pressure. Under the dual factors, the steel industry began to show a weak operating situation. For the steel market in the second half of the year, the only point of view is the pace of construction of affordable housing projects. According to Sheng Zhicheng, assistant general manager of Xiben Shinkansen E-Commerce Co., Ltd., from the current policy orientation, it is possible to comprehensively speed up the construction of affordable housing in the third quarter. At that time, market demand is expected to increase in stages. However, the obvious pulling effect may not occur until August and September. In another macroeconomically sensitive industry, the non-ferrous metals industry also showed signs of a decline in the economy. In particular, the non-ferrous metals industry represented by copper continues to be under pressure. Most copper processing companies said that the downstream demand is unclear, and the pressure on the capital chain is large, which is optimistic about the future prospects. In addition to the copper industry, tin smelting and processing enterprises have also reported to reporters a few days ago that downstream companies have begun to refuse to sign long-term orders, instead of fine-grained, decomposed and on-demand purchases. The order situation is showing obvious small batch and multi-batch characteristics. This is clearly a precursor to the decline in the industry. In the second half of the year, the auto industry was restrained by policies with the withdrawal of various policies: the purchase tax concessions were cancelled and the old ones were cancelled. The increase of negative factors: the restrictions on purchases in some cities, the rise in oil prices, and the increase in parking fees have led to a significant increase in the cost of use, which has a negative impact on industry sales. The support policies for new energy vehicles still exist, but it is difficult for new energy vehicles to break through the high cost and the backwardness of charging facilities in the short term. It is still difficult to achieve large-scale popularization in the second half of the year, and it is difficult for new energy vehicles to contribute better performance. CMIC expects that the growth rate of automobile sales in 2011 will be between 5% and 10%. Automobile exports will be the bright spot in the second half of the year. China's automobile exports account for a relatively small proportion, the base is low, and there is much room for development in the future. It is expected that the growth rate of automobile exports in the second half of the year will be much higher than the growth rate of domestic sales. Shipbuilding industry in the first half half of new orders in the second half has not been enterprise market will continue to slump simple economic situation of the first half in terms of shipbuilding industry can use the "rise and fall" statements, specifically, shipbuilding capacity growth, while orders for new ships The amount of support declined.
According to the latest data of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in the first half of 2011, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 30.92 million DWT, up 4.4% year-on-year; the new ship order volume was 21.6 million DWT, down 9.2% year-on-year; Order volume was 1.8176 trillion deadweight tons, down 1.4% from the same period of the previous year and down 7.2% from the end of the previous year.
This is undoubtedly a signal. Experts analyzed that the international ship market activity in the second half of the year may be lower than the first half. It is estimated that the global new ship order volume in 2011 will be around 80 million DWT, which may be more than 40% lower than the previous year. According to the analysis of the association, the economic indicators such as total industrial output value, export delivery value, main business income and total profit in the first half of the year continued to increase by more than 20% compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the unprecedented market before the financial crisis. Prosperous, China's shipping companies seized the opportunity to undertake a large number of high-priced orders, the ship delivery period continued to 2011 to 2012, the construction of these ships supported the economic indicators in the first half of this year to maintain a relatively high growth. However, with the launch of the low-priced ships after the financial crisis broke out, the growth rate of shipbuilding production and efficiency indicators has dropped compared with the same period last year. The association estimates that the global handheld ship orders will continue to fall sharply in the second half of this year, and will drop below 400 million deadweight tons by the end of this year, and the annual decline may exceed 15%. In addition, the price of new ships continues to be sluggish and corporate profits are more difficult. The demand for the hardware market was stabilized by the economic recovery in Europe and the United States. The demand for the US hand tool market stabilized. At the same time that the size of new homes in the housing market increased at the end of last year, there were still a large number of existing homes uninhabited, which brought great housing renovation market opportunities. The average model and age of motor vehicles are getting bigger and bigger, which has promoted the sales of hand tools in the aftermarket. In addition, the demand for forging tools for electronic product distribution is strong, especially for adjustable wrenches. The demand for hand tools in Germany has increased, and in Germany, the tools of comfort and effort are the most popular. The smooth handles and aesthetic appearance that help grip the tool are important factors that appeal to their desire to buy. Power tools are now increasingly popular in terms of the types of tools. In addition, rechargeable tools are becoming more popular. The new rechargeable tools available on the market now have multiple rechargeable battery jacks that can be used in a variety of environments. Photovoltaic industry enters the brand integration period Solarium research institute Solarium recently released a report that it is estimated that the global equipment purchase expenditure of crystalline silicon and thin film solar photovoltaic cell manufacturers will drop to 7.6 billion US dollars in 2012, a sharp drop of 47%. This situation may indicate that the PV industry is stopping expansion and entering the industry integration period. Shen Hongwen, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, pointed out that the sharp decline in the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the European market and the rapid expansion of the photovoltaic industry have caused imbalances in the supply and demand of the photovoltaic industry. Since the beginning of this year, a number of policies to reduce PV subsidies have been introduced in Germany, Italy, Spain and other countries, and the installed capacity of photovoltaics has dropped sharply. As the most important market in the world, the European market directly affects the demand of the global photovoltaic industry. According to Zhang Yulin, research director of China Investment Consulting, from the perspective of industry development, the current PV industry is in a period of rapid growth to rational growth. The development prospects of the PV industry are very clear, and the launch of the domestic PV market is not far off. After experiencing industrial integration and industry reshuffle, the competitiveness of the entire photovoltaic industry will be greatly enhanced, and the photovoltaic industry will develop in a more healthy and orderly direction. With the gradual clarification of the new subsidies for Germany and Italy in the world's major PV markets, demand for PV modules is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, but it will take time to quell the price wars triggered by high inventories. Aviation manufacturing industry will grow strongly According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the total number of passengers transported by civil aviation was 120 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. The overall passenger load factor is expected to reach 80% in the whole year, and fares will increase by about 3%. The rigid demand in the domestic market is strong, and fares have increased by about 8% year-on-year. Airport take-off and passenger transport have maintained steady growth, and this will bring huge advancement to the aviation industry. Aircraft carrier construction pulls related industry investment At present, China's aircraft carrier is in full swing, and the construction of China's aircraft carrier will not only bring military strength to China, but also bring economic growth. Aircraft carrier construction will drive 100 billion yuan. Yuan investment. Aircraft carrier construction is a huge system project. The state investment in aircraft carriers will continue to drive technological upgrading of related industries. At the same time, military use for civilian use will also help transform economic growth. The investment demand of large aircraft carriers is more than 10 billion US dollars. From the perspective of sea safety, it is very likely that China will build more than two aircraft carriers. The total cost of the two ships should be estimated at about 10-15 billion US dollars, plus the annual maintenance guarantee. The cost, the investment driven by China's aircraft carrier should be 100 billion yuan. The high-end equipment industry of aircraft carriers involves the manufacture of ship hulls and the manufacture of various types of carrier aircraft. The construction of aircraft carriers has enabled China's high-end equipment industry to enter a rapid development channel. At the same time, hull manufacturing investment accounts for 40%-60% of the entire aircraft carrier formation. According to the estimated investment of 100 billion aircraft carrier formations, the hull manufacturing will reach about half, and the market investment will reach 50 billion yuan. Editor's Note: As can be seen from the above, there are many variables in the downstream of the industry in the second half of the year. The probability of rapid growth is small. For the macro economy, whether it is stagflation or soft landing, China's economic slowdown will be an indisputable fact. The domino effect of China's economic slowdown and the collapse of Southeast SMEs will affect the industry more or less. In the face of cost pressures and difficulties in financing, export-oriented super-hard enterprises can still wait and see the recovery of the European and American economies. In the case of super-hard enterprises dominated by the domestic market, the current rapid expansion of capacity will not be conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises, but the undeniable is that with the slowdown of domestic demand and the slowdown of investment-based infrastructure. With the arrival of the industrial transformation of the five countries, super-hard materials and products have a tendency to replace ordinary abrasives. Even if the downstream market demand is stable, the super-hard industry can maintain steady growth.
According to the latest data of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in the first half of 2011, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 30.92 million DWT, up 4.4% year-on-year; the new ship order volume was 21.6 million DWT, down 9.2% year-on-year; Order volume was 1.8176 trillion deadweight tons, down 1.4% from the same period of the previous year and down 7.2% from the end of the previous year.
This is undoubtedly a signal. Experts analyzed that the international ship market activity in the second half of the year may be lower than the first half. It is estimated that the global new ship order volume in 2011 will be around 80 million DWT, which may be more than 40% lower than the previous year. According to the analysis of the association, the economic indicators such as total industrial output value, export delivery value, main business income and total profit in the first half of the year continued to increase by more than 20% compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the unprecedented market before the financial crisis. Prosperous, China's shipping companies seized the opportunity to undertake a large number of high-priced orders, the ship delivery period continued to 2011 to 2012, the construction of these ships supported the economic indicators in the first half of this year to maintain a relatively high growth. However, with the launch of the low-priced ships after the financial crisis broke out, the growth rate of shipbuilding production and efficiency indicators has dropped compared with the same period last year. The association estimates that the global handheld ship orders will continue to fall sharply in the second half of this year, and will drop below 400 million deadweight tons by the end of this year, and the annual decline may exceed 15%. In addition, the price of new ships continues to be sluggish and corporate profits are more difficult. The demand for the hardware market was stabilized by the economic recovery in Europe and the United States. The demand for the US hand tool market stabilized. At the same time that the size of new homes in the housing market increased at the end of last year, there were still a large number of existing homes uninhabited, which brought great housing renovation market opportunities. The average model and age of motor vehicles are getting bigger and bigger, which has promoted the sales of hand tools in the aftermarket. In addition, the demand for forging tools for electronic product distribution is strong, especially for adjustable wrenches. The demand for hand tools in Germany has increased, and in Germany, the tools of comfort and effort are the most popular. The smooth handles and aesthetic appearance that help grip the tool are important factors that appeal to their desire to buy. Power tools are now increasingly popular in terms of the types of tools. In addition, rechargeable tools are becoming more popular. The new rechargeable tools available on the market now have multiple rechargeable battery jacks that can be used in a variety of environments. Photovoltaic industry enters the brand integration period Solarium research institute Solarium recently released a report that it is estimated that the global equipment purchase expenditure of crystalline silicon and thin film solar photovoltaic cell manufacturers will drop to 7.6 billion US dollars in 2012, a sharp drop of 47%. This situation may indicate that the PV industry is stopping expansion and entering the industry integration period. Shen Hongwen, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, pointed out that the sharp decline in the installed capacity of photovoltaics in the European market and the rapid expansion of the photovoltaic industry have caused imbalances in the supply and demand of the photovoltaic industry. Since the beginning of this year, a number of policies to reduce PV subsidies have been introduced in Germany, Italy, Spain and other countries, and the installed capacity of photovoltaics has dropped sharply. As the most important market in the world, the European market directly affects the demand of the global photovoltaic industry. According to Zhang Yulin, research director of China Investment Consulting, from the perspective of industry development, the current PV industry is in a period of rapid growth to rational growth. The development prospects of the PV industry are very clear, and the launch of the domestic PV market is not far off. After experiencing industrial integration and industry reshuffle, the competitiveness of the entire photovoltaic industry will be greatly enhanced, and the photovoltaic industry will develop in a more healthy and orderly direction. With the gradual clarification of the new subsidies for Germany and Italy in the world's major PV markets, demand for PV modules is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, but it will take time to quell the price wars triggered by high inventories. Aviation manufacturing industry will grow strongly According to statistics, from January to May 2011, the total number of passengers transported by civil aviation was 120 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. The overall passenger load factor is expected to reach 80% in the whole year, and fares will increase by about 3%. The rigid demand in the domestic market is strong, and fares have increased by about 8% year-on-year. Airport take-off and passenger transport have maintained steady growth, and this will bring huge advancement to the aviation industry. Aircraft carrier construction pulls related industry investment At present, China's aircraft carrier is in full swing, and the construction of China's aircraft carrier will not only bring military strength to China, but also bring economic growth. Aircraft carrier construction will drive 100 billion yuan. Yuan investment. Aircraft carrier construction is a huge system project. The state investment in aircraft carriers will continue to drive technological upgrading of related industries. At the same time, military use for civilian use will also help transform economic growth. The investment demand of large aircraft carriers is more than 10 billion US dollars. From the perspective of sea safety, it is very likely that China will build more than two aircraft carriers. The total cost of the two ships should be estimated at about 10-15 billion US dollars, plus the annual maintenance guarantee. The cost, the investment driven by China's aircraft carrier should be 100 billion yuan. The high-end equipment industry of aircraft carriers involves the manufacture of ship hulls and the manufacture of various types of carrier aircraft. The construction of aircraft carriers has enabled China's high-end equipment industry to enter a rapid development channel. At the same time, hull manufacturing investment accounts for 40%-60% of the entire aircraft carrier formation. According to the estimated investment of 100 billion aircraft carrier formations, the hull manufacturing will reach about half, and the market investment will reach 50 billion yuan. Editor's Note: As can be seen from the above, there are many variables in the downstream of the industry in the second half of the year. The probability of rapid growth is small. For the macro economy, whether it is stagflation or soft landing, China's economic slowdown will be an indisputable fact. The domino effect of China's economic slowdown and the collapse of Southeast SMEs will affect the industry more or less. In the face of cost pressures and difficulties in financing, export-oriented super-hard enterprises can still wait and see the recovery of the European and American economies. In the case of super-hard enterprises dominated by the domestic market, the current rapid expansion of capacity will not be conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises, but the undeniable is that with the slowdown of domestic demand and the slowdown of investment-based infrastructure. With the arrival of the industrial transformation of the five countries, super-hard materials and products have a tendency to replace ordinary abrasives. Even if the downstream market demand is stable, the super-hard industry can maintain steady growth.
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