Since May this year, international polysilicon prices have continued to rise. Recently, around the $90/kg mark, there is a view in the industry that polysilicon prices will soon rise to over $100/kg. Henning Wicht told China Securities Journal that the current price of PV supply and demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but prices will fall in the medium term.
Next year's global growth rate is below 30%
"The global solar installed capacity is expected to reach 20.2GW next year and the installed capacity will increase by 22.6%," said Henning Wicht, principal analyst of photovoltaic materials and systems at iSuppli. The price will weaken at the end of the first quarter of 2011, and the weak price will lead to the second quarter. Demand has increased significantly.
Due to the downward adjustment of FIT (on-grid tariff subsidy policy) impact on the German and Italian markets, the current debate on the PV market in 2011 is weak or continue to grow strongly. iSuppli predicts that Germany will lead again with 9.5GW; Italy and the United States are close to 2GW; Czech installed capacity will drop significantly in 2011, from GW to 20%; France's installed capacity will be reduced from 1080MW to 700MW.
For the installed capacity of the Chinese market next year, iSuppli is expected to expand from 400MW this year to 800MW, and in 2014 it will be about 1.5GW.
Henning Wicht told China Securities Journal that China's growth depends on whether government subsidies such as the Golden Sun Project continue, and the cost of photovoltaics continues to decline. If it is still the current price of 1 yuan / kWh, there will be pressure.
Germany's demand fell by more than 50% in 2012
Germany is the most important PV market in the world and is expected to account for half of the global PV consumption this year and next. Therefore, fluctuations in demand caused by changes in German subsidy policies directly affect the supply and demand relationship and global growth rate of the global PV market.
iSuppli predicts that global installed capacity will be slightly reduced to 19.0GW in 2012. After the German market installed 9.5 GW in 2011, the annual installed capacity will drop to 4-5 GW in the next few years. The downgrade of FIT in major European countries, as well as the depreciation of the euro, is likely to push up the price of modules and other system components, which may reduce the enthusiasm of major European consumer countries.
iSuppli believes that Germany will cut its Internet subsidy by 13% next year. If PV system manufacturers do not cut prices, the German market demand will shrink. It is estimated that PV module manufacturers will appropriately reduce by 10% to promote a sustainable market.
Henning Wicht told China Securities Journal that the module accounts for about 50-60% of the total cost. If the PV operator wants to ensure an investment return of 8%-10%, the manufacturer must cut the price. In fact, the current PV manufacturers' profits are still above 20%, and they can afford them. On the one hand, they can reduce costs by expanding the scale, on the other hand, they can also make full use of exchange rate fluctuations to improve profitability.
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