In September and October, domestic and international non-ferrous metals markets, especially copper and aluminum, experienced a wave of fluctuations. From mid-September, basic nonferrous metal prices performed well, with copper, aluminum, nickel, and lead all approaching the highs reached earlier this year. However, in mid-October, due to the international market's concern about the decrease in demand in the Chinese market, the global metal market prices have dropped. However, this phenomenon did not last long, and the nonferrous metal market price continued its upward trend. The reason why domestic non-ferrous metal market prices continue to rise, in addition to supply gaps and inventory declines, is mainly due to a rebound in market demand. Nickel and zinc are one of the main raw materials for iron and steel enterprises. With the peak of electricity consumption and the rebound in domestic steel market prices, some steel companies that have stopped production and started production have begun to resume production, and demand for nickel and zinc has increased. In addition, the rebound in investment in some industries, a number of new projects have not been effectively controlled, fixed asset investment figures rose slightly in September, the month grew 27.9%, 1.6 percentage points higher than in August. This has driven the market demand for nonferrous metals to some extent. On October 29, the Central Bank announced the decision to raise interest rates. This measure not only affects the macro economy, but also affects the development of some key industries in China such as real estate, automobiles, and steel, and thus also affects the development of the non-ferrous metal industry. The demand for non-ferrous metals in the market will be restrained to a certain extent in the month, but demand growth is still the main theme in the long term. The demand for non-ferrous metals in the international market will slow down. The U.S. industrial production rose by 0.1% in September from the previous month, although it was better than -0.1% in August, but it was lower than the 0.3% increase expected in the previous market. This shows that the U.S. industrial production is not as good as expected. Some analysts believe that the US economic growth has begun to show signs of fatigue. The impact of high crude oil prices on the global economy will be more clearly manifested in the future, so the global demand for non-ferrous metals will slow down in the future. Interest rate hikes will effectively curb investment in some industries. The direct consequence of raising interest rates is that the overheating of fixed asset investment and real estate investment will be effectively curbed, and investment expansion in these two areas is the more fundamental driving force for metal demand to remain strong. Therefore, raising interest rates will increase the purchasing costs of non-ferrous metals companies and reduce the demand for non-ferrous metals. However, this rate hike is small, and monetary policy from the implementation to produce a significant effect is usually more than half a year in the process of time lag, so the short-term increase in interest rates on the non-ferrous metal prices is more limited. It should be noted that the market's expectation of a continuous increase in interest rates will have an impact on the non-ferrous metals market. The drop in international oil prices will promote the reduction of non-ferrous metal prices. September, October, affected by various factors, international crude oil prices remain above $ 50, even above $ 55, which is driven by domestic industrial product price includes important reason for non-ferrous metal prices. At present, the price of international oil futures has dropped. It is expected that although the price of oil will remain high for a period of time, it will not continue to rise as it did in the past two months. The drop in oil prices will promote the reduction of non-ferrous metal prices. However, we must realize that with the current momentum of China’s economic growth, the economy will maintain a relatively high growth rate for a long time to come. Due to the continuous expansion of China's economy, despite the increase in interest rates, the overall demand for non-ferrous metals will continue to increase year by year. This is the basic factor affecting non-ferrous prices. And its price rises and falls not only depend on consumption (especially China's demand), but also depends on supply and other various factors, such as raw materials and transportation prices. At present, China has become the world's largest consumer of non-ferrous metals. With the rapid development of industrialization, the demand gap in the domestic non-ferrous metals market will increase, and it will only rely more on the supply of international markets. At present, international shipping prices are also skyrocketing. Bulk carriers that transport raw materials are already approaching the higher prices this spring. Freight rates for large bulk carriers carrying iron ore have reached US$40 per ton between Japan and Brazil; medium-sized ships that transport grain Between the Gulf of Mexico Japan reached 60 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10% compared with September. The freight rates for regular container flights also began to rise. Based on the above factors, we believe that although the domestic non-ferrous metal market demand will be restrained to a certain extent in November, there will be pressure for price correction, but it is expected that the non-ferrous metal prices will stabilize at high levels. Source: China Securities News
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