As the world's second-largest steel producer and the largest steel exporter, the impact of Japan's 9.0-magnitude earthquake on March 11 on its steel industry is conceivable. Japanese steel products are mainly high-end products, including high-end automotive steel, machinery and equipment and steel for power equipment. The earthquake will lead to a decline in high-end capacity supply in Japan. For the Chinese steel industry, high-end products will partially replace Japanese steel companies. At the same time, Japan's export of steel to the world will be reduced, which may be beneficial to the export of China's steel. “Japan is a global steel producer. If the global market is regarded as a market, it will definitely cause the market to be in short supply.†According to relevant media reports, three steelmakers such as Japan’s Nippon Steel are facing structural problems at five steelworks in Tokyo Bay. Destruction, and can not be restored in the short term, the production may take up to 6 months, is expected to affect the international market demand for 22 million tons of iron ore. Or affecting 30 million tons of crude steel capacity In 2010, Japan's crude steel output was close to 110 million tons, up 25% year-on-year, creating the largest increase in 43 years. Crude steel production is second only to China, ranking second in the world. A strong growth momentum may turn around this year. According to the public information of Japanese steel companies, this strong earthquake directly affects about 26 million tons of crude steel capacity in Japan's three major steel mills, such as Nippon Steel, which is expected to affect the national steel production capacity of 30 million tons. From the perspective of product structure, plates and pipes will be subject to greater impact. Among them, Japan's second largest steel mill JFE subordinates Chiba Plant and Keihin Plant affected the production capacity of crude steel reached 8 million tons, accounting for nearly 25% of its total capacity, mainly involving thin plates, plate, stainless steel and steel pipes. The Kashima Plant under the jurisdiction of Sumitomo Metals has been discontinued and is expected to affect approximately 8 million tons of production capacity, mainly including thin and medium plates. Nippon Steel's Shimaishi Plant was suspended due to flooding of some workshops. It is expected that the wire production capacity will be affected. A blast furnace at Junjin Plant is damaged. The plant's output last year reached 7.86 million tons, mainly involving thin plates, plate and wire. , profiles and stainless steel; Muroran plant can not be produced due to serious damage to the facilities, the plant's crude steel output reached 1.37 million tons last year, the production of rod and wire products will be affected. Kobe Steel, the fourth largest steel mill in Japan, is far from the source and has limited impact. Tokyo Steel, the fifth largest steel mill in Japan, owns a company in Utsunomiya and is close to the source of the earthquake, which may be affected. Some small steel mills located in the Northeast and Kanto areas will also be directly affected by the earthquake. According to media reports, the earthquake also seriously damaged some of the ports adjacent to the steel mills. Since Japanese steel mills need to rely on ports to import raw materials and export steel, normal production of steel mills may not proceed smoothly until the port has been repaired. In addition, due to the indirect impact of the tsunami, the ore scrap terminal of some steel mills in Tokyo Bay could not be used. It is estimated that the total impact will be about 16 million tons of crude steel capacity, accounting for 14% of Japan's crude steel output last year, and the proportion of global crude steel production. It is 1%. In fact, this earthquake has led to nuclear leakage at nuclear power plants with high seismic resistance. For ordinary steel mills with certain earthquake resistance, such strong earthquakes are even more unbearable. An industry engineering appraiser said that under normal circumstances, if the blast furnace and converter of the steel mill have an accident during the production process, it takes 6 to 10 months of maintenance time. If it is rebuilt, it may take several years. According to preliminary judgments, steel mills affected by the earthquake may stop production for more than 6 months, and reduce steel production by 2.5 million tons per month, accounting for about 30% of normal production, and the cumulative production reduction reached 15 million tons. My high-end steel exports will benefit as the world's largest steel exporter. Last year, Japan exported 43.4 million tons of steel, accounting for 45% of its total output. The main export varieties include galvanized sheet, cold coil, plate, electrical steel and Stainless steel, etc., applications in the automotive, home appliances and shipbuilding industries. Wei Zengmin, an analyst at “My Steelâ€, said that in the strong earthquake in Japan, the most affected steel products were thin plates and plate, followed by wire rods, and the production capacity of stainless steel, profiles and steel pipes will also be affected. Due to the destruction of local steel mills, the vacancy of Japan's high value-added steel exports is expected to be compensated by China, and China's high-end steel exports will usher in a positive. It is estimated that if the supply and demand gap caused by the reduction of Japanese crude steel and automobiles is fully filled by China, China's crude steel capacity utilization rate will increase by 2.9 percentage points, which will help further improve the supply and demand relationship of China's steel industry. Industry experts generally believe that the Chinese steel industry may benefit from Japan's post-disaster reconstruction and replacement of Japanese steel exports. Affected by this, the international iron ore market may moderately “cool downâ€, and China's high value-added steel exports are welcoming. It is expected that domestic steel prices will return to the rising channel in the first half of the year, and the production space of China's steel enterprises will be further improved. On the same day, CIC Securities also pointed out in the report that the export of China's steel industry will tend to improve after the earthquake in Japan due to the reduction of steel production capacity and the surge in demand for steel after disaster reconstruction.
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