Fossil Fuels with the Largest Decline in Coal Growth

On July 2, the BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook 2013 was released in Beijing. A series of data in the yearbook shows that coal is still the fastest growing fossil fuel, accounting for 29.9% of the primary energy consumption since the highest level since 1970. At the same time, coal is also the largest decline in fossil fuels.

In 2012, the growth rate of global coal production and consumption slowed down significantly. Global coal consumption grew by 2.5% in 2012, far below the 10-year average of 4.4%. Among them, the decline in US coal consumption (down 11.9%) offset the growth in Europe and Japan. Coal production grew by 2%, with growth in China (up 3.5%) and Indonesia (up 9%) offsetting the decline in the United States (declined by 7.5%).

Comparing the 2012 and 2013 BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook, we can see that there were 9 and 18 countries with negative growth in coal production year-on-year in 2011 and 2012 respectively, and there were 20 and 28 countries with negative year-on-year growth in consumption. (This segment of statistics is limited to the countries mentioned in the statistical yearbook). It can be seen that the intensity of coal mining is decreasing and coal consumption has also entered a deceleration track.

Among the countries with negative consumption growth, Sweden ranked first with a decrease of -25.7%. Australia and Denmark followed closely with a decrease of -23.4% and -23.8%. Finland, Bulgaria, and the United States decreased by -15.1%. , -13.4% and -11.9%. With the exception of Bulgaria, the three countries in the European Union have very little coal resources, and their neighboring countries such as Germany are gradually shutting down coal mines, so they are shifting their efforts to developing renewable energy. Coal consumption naturally decreases.

As a country with rich coal resources, why is there a negative growth in coal consumption? Since 1980, Australia has been using coal as the main source of electricity. Even in 2000, 80% of Australian electricity sources were still coal. In July 2012, the Australian government announced a carbon emission tax plan in opposition. The carbon tax scheme has pushed up energy prices in Australia, gradually changing the energy structure, and many power companies have abandoned construction of thermal power plants.

It is an indisputable fact that the reduction in coal consumption in the United States has benefited from shale gas. U.S. President Barack Obama announced the first national climate action plan on June 25, focusing on reducing carbon emissions from power plants. Predictably, the US coal consumption will continue to decrease.

However, in contradiction with the sharp drop in coal consumption in some European countries, the consumption of coal in many countries in Europe increased significantly last year.

According to statistics, European natural gas consumption decreased by 2.3% in 2012, and coal consumption increased by 3.4%. Specific to some countries, the increase is not small. For example, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, and France increased by 31.4%, 24.2%, 24%, and 20.1%, respectively. The reason is also related to shale gas in the United States. Due to low gas prices and stringent carbon emission measures, coal consumption in the United States has been significantly reduced, and producers have instead switched to exporting coal. These low-cost coal enter the European market and compete with rising European natural gas prices, prompting the emergence of a coal-fired generation trend in the European power generation industry.