In September, China’s total import and export value was US$345.03 billion, an increase of 6.3%. Among them, exports were US$186.35 billion, up 9.9%, and the monthly export volume reached a record high; imports were US$158.68 billion, up 2.4%.
Export growth in September was not only higher than the 2.7% in August, but also higher than the median growth forecast of 5% given by economists. This is in complete agreement with the official PMI figures announced in early October. In September, the new export order index and import index reflecting the manufacturing foreign trade situation were 48.8% and 47.7%, respectively, up 2.2 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
The monthly high of exports in September is nothing more than internal and external reasons. From the perspective of external economy, the US economic recovery is obvious. The launch of QE3 has enabled the United States to maintain a relatively abundant liquidity, boosting demand and consumption, and strong growth in foreign demand. The biggest benefit is China's exports. In the first three quarters of the decline in China's trade with Europe and Japan, the year-on-year growth rate of bilateral trade between China and the United States reached 9.1%. It shows that China's exports hit a new high in a single month in September, and contributed a lot to the US exports. A realistic factor is the impact of Christmas orders. China is a major producer of Christmas products in Europe and the United States. Export companies in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta have begun to receive new orders from Europe and the United States, including Christmas-related products.
From the perspective of internal factors, the state's policies and measures to promote the steady growth of foreign trade, along with customs, quality inspection and other departments have successively introduced relevant implementation rules, helping enterprises to save transaction costs, improve operational efficiency, ease operating pressures and tax credits to promote export preferential treatment. The positive effects of policies and other aspects are gradually emerging, and export incentive policies are being exerted. The above-mentioned internal and external factors have caused China's exports to show a good trend in September.
The single-month high of exports in September was an unexpected big surprise for the Chinese economy, and it gave the economy a good feeling of a long-lost snow. From the PMI in September to the better, the export data in September is more optimistic; from the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day holiday tourism boom, driving rapid consumption growth, some industrial enterprises and SMEs business showing signs of improvement, indicating that China's economy is difficult and slow The ground is out of the trough and is getting rid of the continuing downward trend. According to a series of economic data analysis, especially in September, exports hit a new high in a single month. The author faintly saw signs of bottoming out in the Chinese economy in the third quarter. If this positive trend can continue, then China’s economy will be the latest in the fourth quarter. There will be a moderate recovery in the first quarter of next year.
Of course, the future situation of import and export should not be too blindly optimistic. In September, the total value of imports and exports increased by only 6.3%. The import and export growth of general trade in the first three quarters was 5.9%, which was lower than the annual growth target (10%) by 3.7 and 4.1 percentage points respectively. With only three months left this year, it is not difficult to complete the annual import and export target.
The unfavorable factor in external demand is that the European sovereign debt crisis is still fermenting, reflecting China's external demand. In the first three quarters of this year, the bilateral trade value between China and the EU fell by 2.7%. The Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Islands dispute has affected bilateral trade. In the first three quarters, the bilateral trade value between China and Japan fell by 1.8%. This downward trend is rapidly expanding. Among the three major trading partners of the US, Europe and Japan, the two major trading partners are in a slump, leaving the United States alone. According to the domestic economic situation in the United States, there is still uncertainty in Sino-US trade.
Therefore, from the perspective of external demand, China should actively participate in global economic affairs and work with important trading partners to promote the rapid recovery of the world economy, thereby restoring China's external demand. From the inside, we should continue to implement the policy measures introduced by the State Council in mid-September to promote the steady growth of foreign trade. In particular, commercial banks should give preferential treatment to export enterprises in terms of demand for credit funds and reduction of credit costs, so as to resume their sustained growth as soon as possible.
Export growth in September was not only higher than the 2.7% in August, but also higher than the median growth forecast of 5% given by economists. This is in complete agreement with the official PMI figures announced in early October. In September, the new export order index and import index reflecting the manufacturing foreign trade situation were 48.8% and 47.7%, respectively, up 2.2 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
The monthly high of exports in September is nothing more than internal and external reasons. From the perspective of external economy, the US economic recovery is obvious. The launch of QE3 has enabled the United States to maintain a relatively abundant liquidity, boosting demand and consumption, and strong growth in foreign demand. The biggest benefit is China's exports. In the first three quarters of the decline in China's trade with Europe and Japan, the year-on-year growth rate of bilateral trade between China and the United States reached 9.1%. It shows that China's exports hit a new high in a single month in September, and contributed a lot to the US exports. A realistic factor is the impact of Christmas orders. China is a major producer of Christmas products in Europe and the United States. Export companies in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta have begun to receive new orders from Europe and the United States, including Christmas-related products.
From the perspective of internal factors, the state's policies and measures to promote the steady growth of foreign trade, along with customs, quality inspection and other departments have successively introduced relevant implementation rules, helping enterprises to save transaction costs, improve operational efficiency, ease operating pressures and tax credits to promote export preferential treatment. The positive effects of policies and other aspects are gradually emerging, and export incentive policies are being exerted. The above-mentioned internal and external factors have caused China's exports to show a good trend in September.
The single-month high of exports in September was an unexpected big surprise for the Chinese economy, and it gave the economy a good feeling of a long-lost snow. From the PMI in September to the better, the export data in September is more optimistic; from the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day holiday tourism boom, driving rapid consumption growth, some industrial enterprises and SMEs business showing signs of improvement, indicating that China's economy is difficult and slow The ground is out of the trough and is getting rid of the continuing downward trend. According to a series of economic data analysis, especially in September, exports hit a new high in a single month. The author faintly saw signs of bottoming out in the Chinese economy in the third quarter. If this positive trend can continue, then China’s economy will be the latest in the fourth quarter. There will be a moderate recovery in the first quarter of next year.
Of course, the future situation of import and export should not be too blindly optimistic. In September, the total value of imports and exports increased by only 6.3%. The import and export growth of general trade in the first three quarters was 5.9%, which was lower than the annual growth target (10%) by 3.7 and 4.1 percentage points respectively. With only three months left this year, it is not difficult to complete the annual import and export target.
The unfavorable factor in external demand is that the European sovereign debt crisis is still fermenting, reflecting China's external demand. In the first three quarters of this year, the bilateral trade value between China and the EU fell by 2.7%. The Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Islands dispute has affected bilateral trade. In the first three quarters, the bilateral trade value between China and Japan fell by 1.8%. This downward trend is rapidly expanding. Among the three major trading partners of the US, Europe and Japan, the two major trading partners are in a slump, leaving the United States alone. According to the domestic economic situation in the United States, there is still uncertainty in Sino-US trade.
Therefore, from the perspective of external demand, China should actively participate in global economic affairs and work with important trading partners to promote the rapid recovery of the world economy, thereby restoring China's external demand. From the inside, we should continue to implement the policy measures introduced by the State Council in mid-September to promote the steady growth of foreign trade. In particular, commercial banks should give preferential treatment to export enterprises in terms of demand for credit funds and reduction of credit costs, so as to resume their sustained growth as soon as possible.
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