The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The period price is the reverse of the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse running range from the newer closing price may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: LME copper in March this week showed a trend of bottoming out. Earlier this week, rumors that the Chinese government would sell a large amount of spot copper and LME copper stocks may increase dramatically in the short term were affected by market rumours. A large-scale downward test, but subsequent rumors that the copper price once again closed higher, the copper price once rose to 3100 US dollars on the line, compared to the final income of 3077 US dollars / ton, compared with last Friday rose 57.5.5 US dollars / Ton, fluctuations in the range of 3089.5 ~ 2920 US dollars / ton, the weekly line with a long lead under the Zhongyang line. Relative to the price of copper, LME3 aluminum futures trend is relatively weak, showing a tendency to fluctuate and decline. Compared with last Friday's closing price of US$1,791/ton, it fell by US$23/ton from last Friday, and the fluctuation ranges from US$1828 to US$1777.5/ton. The line is a small Yin line with a long lower lead. LME copper inventories continued to show a downward trend this week, with final inventory of 640.055 million tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from last week. This week, LME's aluminum stocks showed a significant growth trend, which was an increase of 157.5 thousand tons from the previous week, and the inventory at the weekend was 724.85 million tons. Shanghai Stock Exchange increased its copper inventories by 270 tons to 245.33 million tons this week, and aluminum inventories dropped by 1,418 tons to 106,836 tons. The strike at Chile’s El Abra copper mine continues. At the beginning of this week, the market rumors that the Chinese government will sell a large amount of spot copper to ease the current tight supply of domestic spot copper, and the market also rumors that LME’s warehouse in Singapore may increase 7-8 million tons Copper stocks, making the domestic copper prices fell sharply on Tuesday, the closing all closed at the daily limit, but then after the rumors have not been further confirmed, the copper price once again oscillated upward, but once again on Friday, leading to a larger decline in the external disk . Next week's market forecast: From the current trend, the LME March copper in the first round of 3,000 US dollars repeatedly, the domestic Shanghai copper prices suddenly appeared twice a week sharp dive, showing that the current domestic long camp confidence is not too strong, the market one What has happened is that there has been panic selling. The recent price of copper should be worth our close attention. Operation is still dominated by the short-term trading of the day before the head has formed. Ma Hongqing: In the face of the current inventory consumption situation, international traders have established arbitrage positions in LME futures and the domestic spot market, and managed to force domestic short positions to go out through adjustment of domestic spot premiums, which in turn led to a smooth exit of LME's bullish positions. Under such a trading mechanism, the domestic counter-trading on the LME is merely an intermediary, and the anti-set profit is only equivalent to the meaning of the intermediary fee. The loophole of such a trading mechanism is the breakage of the capital chain of international traders, that is, the copper market demand has significantly decreased, and at the same time, the increase in supply, the spot premium can not be maintained. As far as the current situation is concerned, the fundamentals data can still maintain the trading mechanism of international traders. Of course, the copper price has a position that has a high limit, such as the plunge on October 13. Therefore, it is estimated that the domestic spot price will reach 32000/32500, which will cause a significant head. On Friday, the LME copper price trend appeared to be awkward. The characteristics of the long-term control panel were full, ignoring the pressure on the Far East and the top features of the stock market. However, technically, it does not support the further rise in copper prices. The LWRI indicator indicates that it is difficult for copper prices to rise further. The PHI indicator also indicates that copper prices are facing important pressure levels, and the possibility of overshooting is very small. Both fundamentals and technical aspects are subtle, and the equilibrium of long-term control of the copper market is about to be broken. However, the recent high prices have not completely targeted the short-selling of the Chinese side. The main reason is that the COMEX December rollover transaction will be completed. Once the rollover transaction is completed, the top structure of the copper price will likely end. It is expected that Shanghai Copper CU502 will further test the pressure level of 28800 on Monday, with further pressure at 29,000 and support at 28500. We still recommend investors to establish a short position above 28500 with the stop loss set in a relatively broad area. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London, Nov. 19 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper generally held steady during the open outcry trading on Friday, supported by fund buying and weaker US dollar. However, LME three-month copper 19 The daily close fell slightly and LME Nickel fell sharply again. A trader said, “Neurotic people can't stand the market. The trend is very volatile. In the mid-afternoon session, some open positions emerged as the dollar weakened, which seems to push copper prices higher.†Three-month copper fell 4 US dollars. , to 3,076 US dollars per ton, before it fell to 3,020. Today's trend fluctuated, investors were nervous under trading conditions. Calyon an analyst said, "I see the problem is that although the metal hit a high point, but no deal The amount of cooperation." The euro/US dollar rose to 1.3042/46 US dollars, so the former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman (FED) Chairman Greenspan said that given the current US account deficit is large, the market demand for U.S. assets may decrease at some time in the future. Fourth, late in New York, EUR/USD is reported at approximately 1.2945 U.S. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Metals will follow the trend of foreign exchange before the meeting of 20 finance ministers in Berlin on Friday. However, tight supply, especially in China, is expected to boost copper prices. At $3,100 per tonne, it is expected to challenge the 16-year high of 3,175 in the previous month. ** Other metals also fell ** Three-month aluminum fell, but still stuck in the 1,830-1,770 range. The final fell 23 Dollars, $1,792. Another dealer list “Almost all of today's trading volume is supported by aluminum. In the long term, people are still bullish on aluminum, but people are still quite worried about China’s export potential before China’s export tax rebate policy was lifted in January.†Four outstanding performance lead fell 1.95% to $957, which was lower than Thursday's composite trading closing price of 976. On Thursday, it once again hit a record high of 992.50 US dollars. Three-month zinc fell by 14 US dollars to 1,149 US dollars per ton. The three-month nickel was triggered to stop selling, which tumbled 420 US dollars to 13,680. Since November 11th, it has reportedly closed below 14,000 US dollars/ton. However, fundamentals may continue to support zinc prices to maintain the upward trend. Traders said that since the market expects the nickel supply and demand gap in 2004 to be less than 10,000 tons, investors do not have enough momentum. LME nickel reached an 8-day low of 13,680 USD/ton on the 19th, and is expected to support at 13,500 USD/ton. The three-month copper of LME was under pressure in early morning but then triggered an airdrop to cover the gap, closing down only one US dollar. Traders said that they may test the resistance level of $3,100/t again next week, but they may experience profit taking before the long Thanksgiving weekend. The three-month tin had not been traded in the composite trade, with 9,025/050 being traded in the in-lap trade and 9,100 on Thursday. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, November 19: Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed higher on Friday and fluctuate around the level for most of the day. When the dollar fell, buyers took the opportunity to buy copper. According to the company, the profit-taking and the protection of the more long-established investors in the market started a tangled battle. Most of the trading volume in the copper was due to the recent month-long contract transfer to the far-month contract. One trader said, “Much of the trading today was very calm. All major volatility was seen in overseas markets and it was very dramatic. Therefore, the market was relatively calm and the market closed higher, mainly due to the decline in the US dollar.†On the 19th, copper stocks in London increased by 150 tons to 64,025 tons. On the 18th, copper stocks in New York increased by 59 short tons to 41,415 short tons. Dealers said that the current LME copper key resistance is 3100 US dollars / ton, once the breakthrough will drive copper COMEX rose. The recent support of the COMEX Copper December contract is 1.4130 USD/lb and the resistance is 1.45 USD/lb. COMEX December copper closed up 0.70 cents at US$1.4320 per pound, which doubled with a five-week high set on Thursday. It was low at 1.4080 USD today. Spot copper rose 0.70 cents to close at the contract high in November. US$1.4820. All other months ended higher and reached a contract high. The estimated trading volume was 23,000 lots, which was higher than the 19,464 lots on Thursday. The COMEX copper December contract closed at $1.4320/lb, up 70 points. The March contract closed at $1.4175/lb, up 80 points.
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