The analysis of the “four major diamond†technologies and product competitiveness of the new coal chemical industry is the main raw material of bottle-grade polyester (PET), and the demand for ethylene glycol continues to increase significantly as the consumption of polyester increases. In 2009, the apparent consumption of ethylene glycol in our country increased to 8.4 million tons. As the domestic production capacity during the same period was only 2.718 million tons, the foreign dependency rate reached 69%. Although China's ethylene glycol is in short supply, it is difficult to rapidly expand its production capacity on the oil route. To this end, China has accelerated the development of coal-based glycol technology. So, compared with the oil route, is there any advantage in the current coal-based glycol?
The oil route is constrained:
Competition, but the Middle East and Europe, Europe and the United States From the surface, there are two factors constraining the production capacity of ethylene glycol in China's oil pipeline, that is, the technical level and the economic level, but in essence there is only one, that is, the cost is too high. On the one hand, China's ethylene glycol production equipment, core equipment and catalysts are basically reliant on imports, which keeps the cost high; on the other hand, the production cost of China's petroleum cracking-ethylene-ethylene oxide-ethylene glycol route is due to crude oil-ethylene. With high costs, the cost of raw materials for ethylene glycol is a fraction higher than that of the ethane-ethylene route in the Middle East. In addition, the direct hydration process of ethylene oxide is difficult to transport over long distances with ethylene oxide, and can only be treated with ethylene. Ethylene oxide plant supporting construction.
The superposition of comprehensive factors makes the cost of ethylene glycol on China's petroleum route more than 35% higher than in the Middle East and 18% higher than that in Europe, America and other places.
In order to get rid of the costs of foreign technology and the increasing depletion of oil resources, China has accelerated the non-oil routes such as coal to ethylene glycol, biomass glycol, and formaldehyde carbonylation glycol since the late 1980s. Development of glycol technology. On December 7, 2009, the world’s first coal-to-ethylene glycol industrialization demonstration plant—Danhua Science and Technology Corporation’s 200,000-ton/year coal-based glycol plant in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, opened the whole process and produced qualified Ethylene glycol products.
According to Yao Yuangen, former deputy director of the Fujian Institute of Materials Construction at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and leader of the coal-to-ethylene glycol technology research group, the key to decide whether the coal-based syngas production technology is advanced or not, and whether the product is competitive is to use high options. Sex, high conversion, low cost, long life catalyst. Does the existing coal-based glycol technology project have advantages?
Coal-based glycol accounting:
Far from being theoretically speaking, experts from Guangming used this demonstration project as an example to calculate an account for the reporter. The conclusion is that the full cost of coal-based ethylene glycol in China is 46% lower than that of the domestic oil route. It should have absolute cost and competition. Advantage. However, before the demonstration unit was put into commercial operation, this data was only a theoretical guess.
In fact, in the commercial operation, if the equipment load fails to meet the design capacity, the catalyst selectivity and the ethylene glycol yield do not reach the expected results, or frequent start and stop for various reasons, the cost will increase significantly. Moreover, the production cost currently calculated at 130 yuan/ton coal price is obviously low. It is expected that the price of lignite will increase to RMB 250/ton within 1 to 2 years.
At the same time, technological risks will weaken the competitive advantage of coal-to-ethylene glycol.
Prof. Fang Dingye, a professor at East China University of Science and Technology and a member of the Technical Committee of the National Carbon-Chemical Engineering Research Center, said that although several research institutes have developed catalysts, there are short life spans, precious metal component content, and difficulty in controlling hot spots during the reaction process. Problems, and engineering amplification of carbon monoxide dehydrogenation reactors, catalytic coupling carbonylation reactors, meta-esterification reactors, and hydrogenation reactors are still a challenge. The low total ethylene glycol yield is also difficult to solve in the short term.
In addition, imbalances in supply and demand increase investment risks. In 2011, the production capacity of ethylene glycol in China's oil pipeline will increase to 4.5 million tons per year. The reporter learned that the current construction and planning of coal-based ethylene glycol projects has reached a cumulative capacity of 3 million tons. By the end of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan," China's ethylene glycol production capacity will exceed 13 million tons per year. However, even if China's average annual consumption of ethylene glycol has been maintained at an increase of 18%, it will be no more than 11.6 million tons by 2015. In addition, the global ethylene glycol capacity will also exceed 15% to 20%.
Improve risk awareness:
Carefully investing to guard against quilt cover is based on an analysis of the market and technology. The prospect of coal-to-ethylene glycol is far from being as bright as it is theoretically. In addition, as a liquid chemical, China's ethylene glycol consumption area is concentrated in the East China and South China regions. If the coal-to-ethylene glycol project is located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places, although it can take advantage of cheap coal, it will have to pay high transport costs; if the site is close to the consumer, the coal price will have to double again, which will also significantly increase corporate costs. .
As Wei Jianhua, vice president of Shanghai Huayi Group, reminded us that when it comes to ethylene glycol projects on the company, we must consider the actual market conditions and carefully make technical and economic analysis before making scientific decisions. In particular, it is necessary to consider the possible impact and impact of low-cost imported ethylene glycol on the Chinese market. Otherwise, the coal-based ethylene glycol, which currently looks like an infinite prospect, is likely to become a trap for enterprises to be trapped like coal-to-methanol.
The oil route is constrained:
Competition, but the Middle East and Europe, Europe and the United States From the surface, there are two factors constraining the production capacity of ethylene glycol in China's oil pipeline, that is, the technical level and the economic level, but in essence there is only one, that is, the cost is too high. On the one hand, China's ethylene glycol production equipment, core equipment and catalysts are basically reliant on imports, which keeps the cost high; on the other hand, the production cost of China's petroleum cracking-ethylene-ethylene oxide-ethylene glycol route is due to crude oil-ethylene. With high costs, the cost of raw materials for ethylene glycol is a fraction higher than that of the ethane-ethylene route in the Middle East. In addition, the direct hydration process of ethylene oxide is difficult to transport over long distances with ethylene oxide, and can only be treated with ethylene. Ethylene oxide plant supporting construction.
The superposition of comprehensive factors makes the cost of ethylene glycol on China's petroleum route more than 35% higher than in the Middle East and 18% higher than that in Europe, America and other places.
In order to get rid of the costs of foreign technology and the increasing depletion of oil resources, China has accelerated the non-oil routes such as coal to ethylene glycol, biomass glycol, and formaldehyde carbonylation glycol since the late 1980s. Development of glycol technology. On December 7, 2009, the world’s first coal-to-ethylene glycol industrialization demonstration plant—Danhua Science and Technology Corporation’s 200,000-ton/year coal-based glycol plant in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, opened the whole process and produced qualified Ethylene glycol products.
According to Yao Yuangen, former deputy director of the Fujian Institute of Materials Construction at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and leader of the coal-to-ethylene glycol technology research group, the key to decide whether the coal-based syngas production technology is advanced or not, and whether the product is competitive is to use high options. Sex, high conversion, low cost, long life catalyst. Does the existing coal-based glycol technology project have advantages?
Coal-based glycol accounting:
Far from being theoretically speaking, experts from Guangming used this demonstration project as an example to calculate an account for the reporter. The conclusion is that the full cost of coal-based ethylene glycol in China is 46% lower than that of the domestic oil route. It should have absolute cost and competition. Advantage. However, before the demonstration unit was put into commercial operation, this data was only a theoretical guess.
In fact, in the commercial operation, if the equipment load fails to meet the design capacity, the catalyst selectivity and the ethylene glycol yield do not reach the expected results, or frequent start and stop for various reasons, the cost will increase significantly. Moreover, the production cost currently calculated at 130 yuan/ton coal price is obviously low. It is expected that the price of lignite will increase to RMB 250/ton within 1 to 2 years.
At the same time, technological risks will weaken the competitive advantage of coal-to-ethylene glycol.
Prof. Fang Dingye, a professor at East China University of Science and Technology and a member of the Technical Committee of the National Carbon-Chemical Engineering Research Center, said that although several research institutes have developed catalysts, there are short life spans, precious metal component content, and difficulty in controlling hot spots during the reaction process. Problems, and engineering amplification of carbon monoxide dehydrogenation reactors, catalytic coupling carbonylation reactors, meta-esterification reactors, and hydrogenation reactors are still a challenge. The low total ethylene glycol yield is also difficult to solve in the short term.
In addition, imbalances in supply and demand increase investment risks. In 2011, the production capacity of ethylene glycol in China's oil pipeline will increase to 4.5 million tons per year. The reporter learned that the current construction and planning of coal-based ethylene glycol projects has reached a cumulative capacity of 3 million tons. By the end of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan," China's ethylene glycol production capacity will exceed 13 million tons per year. However, even if China's average annual consumption of ethylene glycol has been maintained at an increase of 18%, it will be no more than 11.6 million tons by 2015. In addition, the global ethylene glycol capacity will also exceed 15% to 20%.
Improve risk awareness:
Carefully investing to guard against quilt cover is based on an analysis of the market and technology. The prospect of coal-to-ethylene glycol is far from being as bright as it is theoretically. In addition, as a liquid chemical, China's ethylene glycol consumption area is concentrated in the East China and South China regions. If the coal-to-ethylene glycol project is located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places, although it can take advantage of cheap coal, it will have to pay high transport costs; if the site is close to the consumer, the coal price will have to double again, which will also significantly increase corporate costs. .
As Wei Jianhua, vice president of Shanghai Huayi Group, reminded us that when it comes to ethylene glycol projects on the company, we must consider the actual market conditions and carefully make technical and economic analysis before making scientific decisions. In particular, it is necessary to consider the possible impact and impact of low-cost imported ethylene glycol on the Chinese market. Otherwise, the coal-based ethylene glycol, which currently looks like an infinite prospect, is likely to become a trap for enterprises to be trapped like coal-to-methanol.