In the afternoon of December 30, according to foreign media reports, Brazilian mining giant Vale is expected to increase its quarterly iron ore contract price by 8.8% to $149.20 per ton in January.
According to Reuters, a source from a Chinese steel mill confirmed that Vale has decided that China's first quarter iron ore export price will be based on Platts CFR North ChinaIODBZ00-PLT day from September 1 to November 30. Average price calculation. According to estimates, the price will increase by 8.8% to 149.20 US dollars per ton.
Iron ore is priceless, the market is still only rising and not falling.
According to my steel network monitoring, as of December 29, the grade 63.5/63% Indian powder mine reported 177-179 US dollars / ton, the domestic mainstream at 175 US dollars / ton, the price has increased by 20% since mid-September. As of December 24, the stock of iron ore ports in major domestic ports was 72.86 million tons, which was at a high level compared with historical levels.
Xu Xiangchun, director of our steel network information, told the China Securities Journal that with the weakening of the steel market in New Year's Day and the weakening of the steel market, both sides of the supply and demand are gradually intensifying, and the trading volume is small. The spot market is mainly wait-and-see, the inquiry is less, and the market is at There is no market price.
Weak market demand in winter
"Now the market can't understand. In the off-season, prices can't come down. Where is the price going in the peak season?" Sheng Zhicheng, deputy secretary-general of the Steel Logistics Professional Committee, told the China Securities Journal that the market procurement of raw materials is very weak now, since there is no demand. Why is the price still rising?
According to industry insiders, this is the traditional iron ore off-season. The market demand is weak. At the same time, the current iron ore price is at a high level, and the steel mills are not willing to order in bulk, resulting in no volume in the overall market. . In addition, current iron ore inventory levels can also reflect current demand side conditions.
Xu Xiangchun believes that "now the iron ore spot price and steel price relationship, steel mills have no profit or even loss." As of December 29, the average price of Φ20mmHRB335 rebar in 25 major cities nationwide has reached 4,647 yuan / ton, the average average price of 3.0mm hot coil in 24 major markets is 4,694 yuan / ton, the average price of 0.5mm cold rolled coil is 5674 yuan / ton.
The cold and warmth of the steel industry is directly determined by the macroeconomic climate. The iron ore price has risen to the highest level in the year. Under the influence of the monetary tightening policy, the demand of the automobile and machinery industries will inevitably weaken. In addition, the winter is coming, real estate. The industry is generally shut down, and the demand for the steel industry is not optimistic in the coming months.
Mutual influence
On the one hand, the price of iron ore remains firm, while the market demand is weak, which seems to be a contradictory market phenomenon. Xu Xiangchun told the China Securities Journal that the current market is mutual speculation and pushes each other up. The market expects the price of coking coal to rise, then it will push the price of minerals up and then to the price of steel. Another chain of logic is the rise of domestic steel prices, then the price of the mine will rise. It is always the Chinese steel industry that suffers during this period.
In recent days, many domestic steel mills have lowered their steel prices. On December 29, Laiwu Steel lowered the ex-factory price of rebar by 50 yuan/ton, the high-line ex-factory price was lowered by 80 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Steel lowered the ex-factory price of hot-rolled steel by 50%. Yuan / ton. Xu Xiangchun believes that if the decline in steel prices can last for half a month, it may have an impact on the price of ore, and it still needs to be observed.
Sheng Zhicheng told the China Securities Journal that it should now enter a cycle of increased iron ore stocks. The price of iron ore continues to rise, which has a large market mentality. The risk of high-priced antimony ore is far greater than the opportunity.
According to Reuters, a source from a Chinese steel mill confirmed that Vale has decided that China's first quarter iron ore export price will be based on Platts CFR North ChinaIODBZ00-PLT day from September 1 to November 30. Average price calculation. According to estimates, the price will increase by 8.8% to 149.20 US dollars per ton.
Iron ore is priceless, the market is still only rising and not falling.
According to my steel network monitoring, as of December 29, the grade 63.5/63% Indian powder mine reported 177-179 US dollars / ton, the domestic mainstream at 175 US dollars / ton, the price has increased by 20% since mid-September. As of December 24, the stock of iron ore ports in major domestic ports was 72.86 million tons, which was at a high level compared with historical levels.
Xu Xiangchun, director of our steel network information, told the China Securities Journal that with the weakening of the steel market in New Year's Day and the weakening of the steel market, both sides of the supply and demand are gradually intensifying, and the trading volume is small. The spot market is mainly wait-and-see, the inquiry is less, and the market is at There is no market price.
Weak market demand in winter
"Now the market can't understand. In the off-season, prices can't come down. Where is the price going in the peak season?" Sheng Zhicheng, deputy secretary-general of the Steel Logistics Professional Committee, told the China Securities Journal that the market procurement of raw materials is very weak now, since there is no demand. Why is the price still rising?
According to industry insiders, this is the traditional iron ore off-season. The market demand is weak. At the same time, the current iron ore price is at a high level, and the steel mills are not willing to order in bulk, resulting in no volume in the overall market. . In addition, current iron ore inventory levels can also reflect current demand side conditions.
Xu Xiangchun believes that "now the iron ore spot price and steel price relationship, steel mills have no profit or even loss." As of December 29, the average price of Φ20mmHRB335 rebar in 25 major cities nationwide has reached 4,647 yuan / ton, the average average price of 3.0mm hot coil in 24 major markets is 4,694 yuan / ton, the average price of 0.5mm cold rolled coil is 5674 yuan / ton.
The cold and warmth of the steel industry is directly determined by the macroeconomic climate. The iron ore price has risen to the highest level in the year. Under the influence of the monetary tightening policy, the demand of the automobile and machinery industries will inevitably weaken. In addition, the winter is coming, real estate. The industry is generally shut down, and the demand for the steel industry is not optimistic in the coming months.
Mutual influence
On the one hand, the price of iron ore remains firm, while the market demand is weak, which seems to be a contradictory market phenomenon. Xu Xiangchun told the China Securities Journal that the current market is mutual speculation and pushes each other up. The market expects the price of coking coal to rise, then it will push the price of minerals up and then to the price of steel. Another chain of logic is the rise of domestic steel prices, then the price of the mine will rise. It is always the Chinese steel industry that suffers during this period.
In recent days, many domestic steel mills have lowered their steel prices. On December 29, Laiwu Steel lowered the ex-factory price of rebar by 50 yuan/ton, the high-line ex-factory price was lowered by 80 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Steel lowered the ex-factory price of hot-rolled steel by 50%. Yuan / ton. Xu Xiangchun believes that if the decline in steel prices can last for half a month, it may have an impact on the price of ore, and it still needs to be observed.
Sheng Zhicheng told the China Securities Journal that it should now enter a cycle of increased iron ore stocks. The price of iron ore continues to rise, which has a large market mentality. The risk of high-priced antimony ore is far greater than the opportunity.
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