On the morning of April 28th, CEC announced today that the power supply gap during the peak summer season may be around 30 million kilowatts, equivalent to the installed capacity of Fujian or Anhui province. At the same time, due to insufficient new installations in the first quarter, CEC will reduce the installed capacity of this year to 85 million kilowatts. The contradiction between the supply and demand of the medium-term power supply in the “12th Five-Year Plan†will be more prominent. During the peak winter season, the national power supply and demand situation is generally tight. China Electricity Union released the first quarter of the national power supply and demand and economic operation situation analysis and forecast report, the report predicts that in the last three quarters, the distribution of new installed areas is uneven, power grid construction Under the influence of structural factors such as uncoordinated, new scale of thermal power and contradiction of coal supply, the national electricity supply and demand situation is generally tight, and the national power supply and demand situation is generally tight during the peak winter. “The specific performance continues to be tight in some regions, and there are periodical power shortages in some areas. Especially during the peak summer period, the power supply gap may be further expanded. The gap is expected to be around 30 million kilowatts, considering the climate, incoming water, and coal supply. The gap may be further expanded by the superposition of uncertain factors," the report revealed. The China Electricity Council predicts that overall, the national electricity supply and demand situation will be tighter than the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†this year. The tension in power supply and demand in some areas will be earlier than in the previous year, and the scope of coverage will be wider and the gap will be Increase. Among them, the power supply and demand in North China, East China and South China is generally tight; the overall supply and demand of electricity in Central China is moderately balanced and the winter is tight; the power supply capacity in Northeast China and Northwest China is generally surplus. Hydropower and coal provinces will also enter the power shortage army this year. “30 million kilowatts is equivalent to the total installed capacity of Fujian Province or Anhui Province.†Xue Jing, director of the statistics department of China Electricity and Electricity Association, said that Chongqing, Zhejiang and Jiangsu have appeared. In the absence of electricity, during the summer peak season, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Shanxi, and Chongqing and Sichuan in the west may experience power shortages. At present, the main reason for the lack of electricity in Zhejiang and Jiangsu is that the demand is strong due to the cold in January-February. In general, the growth of electricity consumption demand of the national residents in the first quarter accounted for a quarter of the growth of the entire country's electricity demand; the second factor The new installed capacity is insufficient. Considering environmental protection issues, the eastern thermal power plant has been suspended. Zhejiang has no new installed capacity in the first quarter, and the model is not high. The third factor is the power grid construction for power transmission across Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Chongqing. insufficient. The problem that is particularly prominent this year is that there are also shortages of electricity in Shanxi and Henan provinces of Hubei, Hunan and coal provinces. Xue Jing believes that the development of the Three Gorges is nearing completion, and there is not much room for new hydropower. At the same time, Hubei and Hunan lack coal. There is not enough space for the development of thermal power. Although the on-grid tariffs of Shanxi and Henan provinces in the coal provinces have risen a bit, it is still difficult to make up for the losses for many years. The local coal is directly sold out to the high-price regions, resulting in coal shortage in the coal-fired power plants. In the last three quarters, CLP expects that the supply and demand of coal in some areas will continue to be tight. In most areas and some time periods, there will be relatively tight supply and demand of coal. The overall coal price will remain high, subject to international coal price and sea freight. The rise and the impact on the limited forecast of coal production growth throughout the year, the risk of further increase in coal prices will have a greater impact on power production supply and corporate efficiency. In the first quarter, the newly installed installed capacity was smaller than expected, and it was revealed that the scale of thermal power production will be less than expected due to the continuous adjustment of the previous investment structure. The China Electricity Council is expected to increase the installed capacity of the nation's infrastructure from the estimated 90 million kilowatts at the beginning of the year to around 85 million kilowatts. According to the overall research and analysis of the supply and demand situation during the first quarter and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the power installation structure, regional layout and the “Eleventh Five-Year†period will undergo major changes. At present, the scale of power supply construction is seriously insufficient, and the enthusiasm of thermal power construction is reduced, which will cause the unreasonable rapid decline in the scale of thermal power production in the next few years, which cannot meet the growth of power demand. It is expected that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, especially the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. The contradiction between power supply and demand in the medium term will be more prominent. "Electric power investment during the '11th Five-Year Plan' period has paid more attention to the adjustment of power structure. The proportion of thermal power investment has dropped sharply, and new energy investment has been more. For example, wind power has a large new scale, but wind power has little effective capacity. The same installed capacity wind power The effective capacity is only 40% of thermal power.†Xue Jing believes that the current effective power supply capacity in China is declining, and the downward trend may increase. Therefore, the China Electricity Council proposes that in order to meet the effective power demand for economic and social development, and to achieve the energy structure goal of national non-fossil energy accounting for about 15% of primary energy consumption, comprehensive measures must be taken. Including the approval of the commencement of large-scale power projects as soon as possible to ensure a reasonable scale of construction and production; start construction of a number of large and medium-sized hydropower projects as soon as possible, develop nuclear power efficiently under the premise of ensuring safety, and actively promote the development of new energy power generation; A certain scale of thermal power projects, mainly coal mine clean high-efficiency coal-fired power plants and natural gas power plants, accelerate the construction of long-distance AC-DC UHV cross-regional lines, solve the large-scale power shortage problem that may occur in the middle of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€; moderately increase the electricity price, In particular, it will further increase the price difference of high-energy-consuming industries; speed up the formulation of energy efficiency standards for all sectors of society, raise industry thresholds, strengthen energy efficiency audits; moderately limit the export of high-energy-consuming products; and advance relevant measures to prevent large-scale power shortages The phenomenon of small diesel engine power generation has led to an increase in energy consumption and a decline in the environmental protection environment. 
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