People's Daily Online, Beijing, November 16 (Dong Jing) "The current global economy has shown an encouraging turn. It should be said that the global economy has been significantly better since the global financial crisis in 2008." November 15, Ministry of Finance Vice Minister Zhu Guangyao’s remarks at the 26th Sino-foreign Management Officials’ School of Industry and Education gave great confidence to hundreds of entrepreneurs present. Talk about the status quo: The world's major economies are growing in growth and economic growth. On the morning of the same day, the "26th China-Foreign Management Officials Industry and Education Symposium" hosted by the "Chinese and Foreign Management" magazine was held in Beijing. Zhu Guangyao analyzed the economic policy on the spot. Spirit and new direction. Zhu Guangyao pointed out that in 2017, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth twice, from 3.4% to 3.6%. "Although only 0.2 percentage points, it is hard to come by. Because in the past few years, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the annual economic growth is high at the beginning of the year, but it is lowered in the middle of the year, and even lowered several times. This is in recent years. For the first time, the global economic growth has been raised." Zhu Guangyao stressed. At the same time, positive growth has occurred in major economies around the world, and it is indeed a very welcome situation in recent years. From the perspective of global trade growth, it has reversed the abnormal situation that trade growth has been lower than global economic growth in the past five years. The latest WTO growth forecast for global trade in 2017 is 3.6%, which is the first time in five years that economic growth has remained the same as trade growth. This situation will have a positive impact on the global economy and trade in 2018. In the field of trade, the external environment for China's development will also improve. Zhu Guangyao said that the third change is the price of important global raw material products, including the stabilization of raw material prices. Recently, crude oil prices have basically stabilized at US$60 per barrel, and prices of other bulk raw materials have also recovered, which is closely linked to the recovery of the global economy and trade. The price of bulk raw materials, especially the recovery of oil prices, will have a positive impact on raw material exporting countries, especially some developing countries. Predicting next year: Global economic stability is challenging for good trade protectionism. "The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will maintain a stable and good momentum on the basis of 2017 in 2018, with an expected growth of 3.7%." Zhu Guangyao confidently He expressed the hope that all countries in the world, especially the G20 countries, will strengthen the coordination of macroeconomic policies and the communication of structural reform policies, and effectively ensure that the global economy will advance along a strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive goal. Although the economic situation is good, we also face some uncertain factors and risks. Zhu Guangyao frankly, first of all, the United States is nervously preparing to launch the largest tax reform plan since the Reagan administration, to improve the competitiveness of US companies, and to encourage overseas funds to return to the United States. Second, the United States started the normalization of interest rates at the end of 2015. This year, the annualized interest rate has been raised twice. It is expected that the annualized interest rate will be raised for the third time in December. According to the general forecast, interest rates will be raised 3-4 times next year. At the same time, the Fed started the process of shrinking the balance sheet. This process deserves our attention because it has a two-pronged approach and a clear timetable and roadmap. The extension of the Fed policy has a great impact on the flow of global capital. Third, the need for high vigilance is global trade protection, which is a challenge that all countries in the world face. "The challenge in this regard is indeed very serious. I think this issue will continue to fertilize next year." "Of course, we are insisting on reform and opening up, upholding free trade, and upholding the WTO principles. China will unswervingly follow the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Guide the direction, deepen reform, expand openness, and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. At the same time, maintain policy communication with countries around the world, especially under the G20 framework. As General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized in the report of the 19th National Congress, build mutual respect, fairness and justice. "The new international relationship of cooperation and win-win." Zhu Guangyao stressed at the end.
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