The 1750th column of the Friday, December 10th, 2004 prompts: The "Risk Warning" section of this publication aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, so that investors can refer to it when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ★ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ★ ★ The reverse run range of newer closing price may be greater than 2%. ★★★ The period price is reversed from the new closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ★★★★ The reverse running range of the newer closing price may be greater than 4%. ★★★★★ The reverse running range from the newer closing price may be greater than 5%. Soybean and soybean meal risk warning: Bullish risk :★ Short-term risk: ★ Pre-teen reminder: Jiang Gan: CBOT soybeans fell due to the suppression of commodity funds on Thursday, due to the disappointing volume of export data has declined, as traders are waiting for the monthly report of the Ministry of Agriculture, 1 Monthly soybeans fell 2.7 cents to 526.5 cents. Soybeans were triggered by the overnight rise of overnight CBOT soybeans on Thursday. Although there was volatility in the session, the stock market was once again pulled higher. Since the price touched the mid-line empty single stop price of 2580, investors should leave strictly according to the plan. Waiting for the next opportunity, it is recommended to wait and see today. Oriental: CBOT soybeans closed at 527 cents per bushel, down 3 cents. The USDA's supply and demand report was issued tonight before the market's wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The US Department of Agriculture announced an export sales report for the week ending December 2. During the week of the US 2004-05 market (since September 1st), net sales of soybeans were 445,900 tons, which was lower than the market forecast of 500,000-700,000 tons, while China’s net purchases during the week were -10,600 tons (of which 16.42 million were purchased. Ten thousand tons, anonymous buyers transferred to 57,000 tons, canceled purchases of 231,800 tons), which is an important factor in the weak market. Now the market generally expects the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report to bring favorable colors, but if the results are similar to market expectations, the impact on U.S. beans will also be limited. Judging from the technical trend, both long and short sides are still in a stalemate, and the supply and demand report of the US Department of Agriculture will lead the market in the next step. It is estimated that Soybeans will continue to follow the trend of US soybeans in the short term. Only from the graphical observation, there is a short-term bottom feature. If it does not fall below the 2560 line in the later period, it is expected to continue its rally. Overseas express delivery: On December 9th, US time, CBOT soybeans opened 1-2 cents lower for each major month contract, and the daily price showed a narrow range of intraday fluctuations. It ended lower by 2-3 cents. January contract opened 528 1/2 cents higher, 530 cents higher, 524 cents lower, closing 526 1/2 cents, down 2 3/4 cents; March contract opened 527 1/2 cents, It was 529 1/2 cents higher and 523 1/2 cents lower, closing at 526 1/2 cents, down 3 cents. Since the USDA will publish new monthly report data tomorrow morning, CBOT traders are mostly adjusting their positions today, and the atmosphere of market trading is boring. A week before the United States Department of Agriculture announced a week’s export sales report, the net sales of US soybeans were 445,900 tons in the week ending December 2nd, which was lower than the market forecast of 500,000-700,000 tons. Chinese buyers cancelled 231,800,000 tons this week. The net purchase of the purchase is -10,600 tons. As of the week, cumulative US soybean export sales for the current marketing year were 609 million bushels, which was lower than the 711 million bushels recorded in the same period of last year. This bearish report data is the main reason for the lower open price for the day. In the past two weeks, the export sales of soybeans in the United States have shown signs of slowing down. With the decrease in purchases by major buyers in China, the outlook for US soybean export demand is worrying. On the spot market, due to the farmer's reluctance to sell, the US soybean base price quotations remained firm, which is the main reason for supporting the recent strong CBOT soybean contract in January. On Thursday, the offer price for soybeans in the United States inland rose by 1-9 cents from the previous day; the Gulf region was 53 cents per bushel, down 1 cent from the previous day. Analysts pointed out that since American farmers are highly likely to concentrate their selling behavior in January next year, the pressure on circulation in the spot market will increase significantly. For the US Department of Agriculture's monthly report tomorrow, the market predicts that US soybean export data will likely be reduced by 10-15 million bushels, and carryover stocks will be raised accordingly. Generally speaking, the data in this report will not change much. The total volume of CBOT soybeans was approximately 61,000 pieces throughout the day; the fund sold approximately 1,000 pieces of the net on the day, and it is expected that there will be 39,000 short-lists. Copper and aluminum risk warnings: Bulls risk: ★ Short risk: ★ Tips before the plate: Orient: Copper: LME March copper rebounded slightly on the back of a short-covering set, closing at 2894.5 US dollars/ton. The previous trading day rose 22.5 US dollars / ton, fluctuations in the range of 2905.5 ~ 2860 US dollars / ton. Although the US dollar rebounded yesterday, the copper price rebounded slightly, and the LME copper inventories fell slightly by 125 tons yesterday. This was due to the rebound strength and the influx of technical buying into the market as the price of copper fell to the level of 2860 US dollars. Judging from the current trend of copper prices, after undergoing a continuous plunge, the upper edge of the shock box in mid-to-late October was 2,850 dollars. The short-term copper prices have been repeated here, but the trend will continue downwards in the later period. The next rhythm will be gradual and gradual. Yesterday, the domestic copper exhibited a strong trend in the near future. This is related to the large number of positions held on the main stocks in December. Due to the fact that this time the majority do not intend to receive the goods, it caused a lot of speculative shorts before the December contract expires. To close out, this has led to a relatively strong spot contract in the first two days of decline is far greater than the far month contract. Operation should still maintain short-term thinking. Yesterday, the domestic spot price fell sharply, for the 29820 ~ 29920 yuan / ton. Aluminium: LME March aluminum was affected by the rebound of the US dollar yesterday, showing a downward trend, closing at below 1800 US dollars. LME aluminum stocks decreased by 1,000 tons yesterday. The domestic Shanghai Aluminum continued to show strong momentum yesterday, mainly after the aluminum export tax rebate appeared clear. At present, most people expect that in order to curb the overheating of the domestic aluminum industry, China will cancel the 5% VAT export tax rebate in 2005, it may impose a 5% aluminum export tax, which shows that the government continues to regulate the aluminum industry. Yesterday, the domestic spot price changed little, reported 15760 ~ 15780 yuan / ton. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London December 9 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals showed a range consolidation trend on Thursday, but remained weak after yesterday's exchange rate changes triggered fund selling. Most basic metals closed slightly lower , Trading was sparse, with LME three-month aluminum falling more. Three-month copper climbed by 6 US dollars to end at 2,871 per tonne. One trader said, "The copper futures are stabilizing. There may be minor technical corrections in the coming days, but from a longer-term perspective, the strong fundamentals make copper prices even more "There is a possibility of a rise." Copper fell by more than 3% on Wednesday. Traders said that the three-month spot premium for copper increased to $102, up from $94 on the 8th. Copper futures gained support from declining stocks. Copper stocks fell by 125 tons to 57,100. Relative to the recent impact of the exchange rate on the futures market, the exchange rate received less attention today. The dollar is generally stable against the euro. It is expected that LME will have three-month copper. The resistance range is 2,900-2,910 USD. Analysts said that the base metals may continue to decline because the market stocks a large number of long positions, and profit-taking sales may also occur before the end of the year. However, solid fundamentals and the US dollar are expected to continue to decline and should curb declines. The focus of attention is mainly on Asia, especially China's economic growth, and it is expected that the region will have strong demand for industrial metals. China's good demand has prompted Japan's Sumitomo metal mine to announce an increase in production plans on Thursday. Affected by a long settlement, LME has three Aluminum fell to a two-week low of 1,775.50 U.S. dollars but closed off from its previous low close. LME aluminum stocks fell, aluminum prices fell sharply. Three-month aluminum fell by 18 US dollars to 1,785 yuan per ton, with support levels at 1,780 and 100-day moving averages around 1,760 points. One trader said that the light trading on the floor was largely due to investment near the end of the year. Those who do not want to enter the market. According to market sources, China will cancel the 8% VAT aluminum export tax rebate at the beginning of 2005. Most people expect that the Chinese government will levy a 5% aluminum export tax to curb the overheating of the domestic aluminum industry. Affected by fund selling and long profit taking, the decline in lead and tin has deepened. The increase in lead and tin in 2004 was limited. Analysts said that lead and tin may fall further. The three-month nickel of LME also closed down on the 9th. Market participants believe that nickel inventory growth all originated from Russia Norilsk Nickel. Zinc was roughly flat. COMEX copper market report: New York, December 9 news: New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) copper closed slightly higher on Thursday, boosted by short covering, rebounded from earlier losses. In early trading, Copper prices hit a low of $1.2990 per pound. Copper prices fell to 1.2980 US dollars per pound on the 8th, which was lower since November 2nd. Speculation and trade buying subsequently encouraged the market to rise. In the past three trading days, copper prices fell by about 10 cents. However, boosted by short covering, copper prices rebounded on the 9th. Most of the sells are long. Perhaps, the recent rebound in the dollar stimulated a small number of funds to settle. However, judging from the economic data of the day, the dollar may weaken in the next two trading days. Previously, some traders had bought large quantities of New York copper, due to the weak dollar. Because of the depreciation of the dollar, New York Copper is cheaper than overseas investors. However, when the dollar rebounded, investors sold New York copper. Two trading days ago, the euro hit a high of 1.3469 against the dollar and then began to fall. An insider said that "the support of the $1.30 line appears to be quite good. Speculators' positions on copper may not be as excessive as other metals. This is helpful. The market has recently been affected by the trend of the US dollar. The US dollar appears to have weakened during the session, which gives speculators incentives to enter the market. "LME 9 copper inventories fell by 125 metric tons to 57,100 metric tons. The COMEX 8 copper inventories fell by 527 short tons to 37,719 short tons. Trading in the more active March period was approximately 0.3 cents higher at $1.3185 per pound. The intraday trading range was 1.2990-1.3280. The spot December period was approximately 0.35 cents higher at $1.3790. Copper volume is estimated Only 10,000 hands.
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